Guild’s Basic Needs Index
An Eye Towards the Post-COVID World
Parts of the United States and the rest of the world are tentatively moving towards re-opening their economies. Many unknowns remain about the path forward, including the timeline for developing treatments and producing vaccines, as well as many other issues. Those unknowns collectively are making it impossible for many companies
COVID: The Global Response
We’ve been concentrating on the fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus pandemic. The responses are similar to the playbook developed in the wake of the Great Recession, but in scope and size, they are unprecedented. Our coverage has been primarily of the response of U.S. authorities so far. This
What Comes Next
Over the past several weeks, we have kept you informed about the monetary and fiscal stimulus being enacted in the United States in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dislocation associated with it. The nature and extent of the economic slowdown caused by measures to combat the virus
Watchful Eyes On the Near-Term… And the Horizon
If you’re in lockdown, working from home, or otherwise practicing social distancing, we hope this letter at least offers the chance to think with us about the implications of current events for the economic, financial, and investing landscape. Perhaps it will even be able to briefly take your mind away
Kitchen Sinks and Alphabet Soup
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, investors’ attention is focused in two directions. First, the progression of the pandemic itself as a public health phenomenon. We believe that before a sustainable stock-market recovery can take hold, global investors will need to see improving news on this front. There are
Patience: This Too Shall Pass
Note: Current events are very fast-moving. The following note was composed last week and sent to our clients and paid subscribers last Thursday. Our first thoughts for our clients, friends, and readers are for your health and resilience, both physical and psychological, as the current crisis unfolds. We trust and
Shock and Awe
Coronavirus panic and a huge shock to oil markets converged on Monday to hand U.S. investors their worst day since the Great Financial Crisis. There were a lot of market-related movements that registered in the stratosphere of the unexpected: the size of the market’s decline; the rapidity of moves in
Market Summary—12 March 2020
For several weeks at the beginning of the year, we were expecting that the strong markets would experience a pullback; but what happened was that world stock and bond markets suddenly became unstable over the last 12 trading days. We began to prepare for a pullback in January, increasing cash
Market Volatility, Recessions, and the Uptick Rule
Global stock markets reacted to the ongoing COVID-19 scare with unusual volatility last week, with U.S. stocks shedding about $4 trillion in value over six bruising sessions. The decline marked the fastest 10% correction from the peak in S&P 500 history (during 1987, the peak was in August, months before
Market Summary—5 March 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks We don’t believe that last week’s declines represented a rational response to neutral analysis of the risks posed by COVID-19. The data we have so far lead us to believe that those risks are relatively modest — that COVID-19 will not be a global black swan,
Chinese Economic Growth: COVID-19 and the Long Picture
Although the news is focused on the human drama of COVID-19 — with quarantines, heroism, tragedy, and fear — economists and financial analysts are busy working through different scenarios for the impact that the epidemic will have on economic activity and economic growth, both in the most affected countries and
Market Summary – 27 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks COVID-19 fears have given market participants the biggest weekly decline since 2008, and a lot of uncertainty remains. As we navigate current events for our clients, we are analyzing data to understand whether we are witnessing an interruption of a continuing trend, or the arrival of
Residential Real Estate: Ripe For Technological Disruption
The total value of residential real estate in the U.S. is about $34 trillion — about the same as the total market capitalization of all publicly traded U.S. companies. But while technology has made the stock market much more efficient — allowing transactions to happen with greater ease and speed,
Bitcoin and Cryptos: Ready For Another Run?
Bitcoin has risen above $10,000 again, and in the context of the ongoing rally in stocks, cryptos are once again getting some attention in the financial press. Although Bitcoin may have left most investors’ minds during the “crypto winter” that followed the bubble burst in early 2018, we note that
Market Summary – 20 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks Are we in a melt-up? We are beginning to see speculative market participants bidding up the stocks of many companies which had been left for dead — if they’re in the sectors and industries of the moment. Many companies associated with carbon-free electricity generation or the
Market Summary–13 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks “Fear? What fear?” U.S. markets have brushed off coronavirus fears and continue to move to new highs. The available data from China and elsewhere suggest that although Covid-19 (the virus’ new official designation) is more worrisome than SARS and MERS, and could yet be disruptive, it
