Guild’s Basic Needs Index
The Trade War and China’s Long Game
At the very end of 2019, China added liquidity to its financial system by loosening the reserve requirements for banks and allowing them to lend more. This move followed three other such cuts earlier in the year, making a total of seven since early 2018. Cutting required reserves is a
Market Summary: January 2, 2020
It has been a typically quiet year-end week, without a lot of significant news for markets or of notable activity. U.S. markets have had a very strong run since the beginning of October, and as we often observe, a correction is possible at any time. Still, as we noted above
New Technology May Make Nuclear More Appealing
Nuclear energy is an unlikely friend of environmentalists. Some remain opposed to nuclear electricity generation because of waste issues and safety concerns. However, a significant number of environmental advocates support nuclear because it is a potential workhorse that could make up much of the shortfall in electricity needs as generation
Questions And Worries For 2020 — And Our Answers
Markets in 2019 truly climbed a wall of worry, recovering from the late 2018 swoon and rising to new highs even in the midst of a host of political, geopolitical, financial, and economic concerns. Some of those worries have been resolved, some have been put to one side, others are
Retirement Changes From the SECURE Act: the Good and the Bad
Recently, the U.S. Senate passed a bill that makes significant changes to the laws governing the tax-advantaged accounts that most Americans rely on to supplement Social Security during their retirement. The President signed it into law on December 20. (We note that when the House passed the bill back in
Risks and Opportunities in 2020
We see a number of macro themes acting on markets in the coming year: The policies of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China, and others, are supportive of global stock markets; A new president of
Market Summary, December 12, 2019
The U.S. As expected, the Federal Reserve made no change to its policy at its Wednesday announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear in the Fed’s accommodative stance. With the level of inflation that would be required to trigger a Fed rate increase nowhere to be found and unlikely
Farewell, Mr Volcker
Paul Volcker, the venerable former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is credited with slaying the dragon of 70s stagflation during his tenure as U.S. central bank chief. Long afterwards, he was still pushing for sound monetary policy and financial regulations through his think-tank, the Volcker Alliance. He died Sunday at
India: Near-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Jannata Party [BJP] took the reins of India’s government in May, 2014. Since then, we’ve been bullish on the long-term opportunity that would be presented by India’s emergence from the corruption and business-hostile governance of many of its 20th century rulers. Some readers may have
Market Summary: December 6, 2019
The U.S. We have been noting for some time that the U.S. market, after weeks of strength, would be susceptible to a modest correction of 1–5%, which may now be underway. As often seems to be the case, the news — in this case, President Trump’s pressure tactics ahead of
An Unexpected Opportunity in Asia
Looking for outperformance in Asia’s emerging economies can be a risky undertaking. The trade conflict between the United States and China is generating one set of uncertainties. More deeply, there is the problem of China’s fraught transition from an industrial-led to a consumer-led economy, and all the domestic political stresses
Market Summary: November 29, 2019
The U.S. With most U.S. markets making new all-time highs, or (as in the case of the Russell 2000) breaking out to new recent highs, we remain fundamentally bullish, and fully aware that a modest correction of 1–5% may occur at any time. In keeping with our overarching strategic view,
U.S. / Mexico / Canada Trade Agreement Nears Ratification By Congress
As we write, there’s breaking news that top negotiators from Canada and Mexico have joined U.S. counterparts in Washington on November 27 to discuss the USMCA trade agreement that has been stalled for many months in the U.S. Congress. Recent comments from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Richard Neal suggest
What Markets Aren’t Expecting: Another Iranian Attack
A little more than a week ago, the Defense Intelligence Agency released an updated comprehensive report on Iranian conventional and unconventional military capabilities. The report notes: “Since 2016, [Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah] Khamenei and other senior leaders have suggested that Iran be more proactive in defending its territory and interests
Tech Pain: Some Growing Negatives of Tech Adoption
Two deeply transformative phenomena of contemporary life were born almost at the same time just over a decade ago. In September 2006, Facebook [NASDAQ: FB] went live to anyone with a valid email address; and in January 2007, the first iPhone was launched by Steve Jobs’ now-famous keynote address at the
Stock Performance and Gender Diversity In Management
ESG is growing in prominence in the investment world. The term refers to the incorporation of “environmental, social, and governance” factors into investment analysis. ESG analysis gives interested investors a window into companies’ behavior and its wider impact in areas that they care about. In order to align their investment
