Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Questions And Worries For 2020 — And Our Answers
Markets in 2019 truly climbed a wall of worry, recovering from the late 2018 swoon and rising to new highs even in the midst of a host of political, geopolitical, financial, and economic concerns. Some of those worries have been resolved, some have been put to one side, others are
Retirement Changes From the SECURE Act: the Good and the Bad
Recently, the U.S. Senate passed a bill that makes significant changes to the laws governing the tax-advantaged accounts that most Americans rely on to supplement Social Security during their retirement. The President signed it into law on December 20. (We note that when the House passed the bill back in
Risks and Opportunities in 2020
We see a number of macro themes acting on markets in the coming year: The policies of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China, and others, are supportive of global stock markets; A new president of
Market Summary, December 12, 2019
The U.S. As expected, the Federal Reserve made no change to its policy at its Wednesday announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear in the Fed’s accommodative stance. With the level of inflation that would be required to trigger a Fed rate increase nowhere to be found and unlikely
Farewell, Mr Volcker
Paul Volcker, the venerable former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is credited with slaying the dragon of 70s stagflation during his tenure as U.S. central bank chief. Long afterwards, he was still pushing for sound monetary policy and financial regulations through his think-tank, the Volcker Alliance. He died Sunday at
India: Near-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Jannata Party [BJP] took the reins of India’s government in May, 2014. Since then, we’ve been bullish on the long-term opportunity that would be presented by India’s emergence from the corruption and business-hostile governance of many of its 20th century rulers. Some readers may have
Market Summary: December 6, 2019
The U.S. We have been noting for some time that the U.S. market, after weeks of strength, would be susceptible to a modest correction of 1–5%, which may now be underway. As often seems to be the case, the news — in this case, President Trump’s pressure tactics ahead of
An Unexpected Opportunity in Asia
Looking for outperformance in Asia’s emerging economies can be a risky undertaking. The trade conflict between the United States and China is generating one set of uncertainties. More deeply, there is the problem of China’s fraught transition from an industrial-led to a consumer-led economy, and all the domestic political stresses
Market Summary: November 29, 2019
The U.S. With most U.S. markets making new all-time highs, or (as in the case of the Russell 2000) breaking out to new recent highs, we remain fundamentally bullish, and fully aware that a modest correction of 1–5% may occur at any time. In keeping with our overarching strategic view,
U.S. / Mexico / Canada Trade Agreement Nears Ratification By Congress
As we write, there’s breaking news that top negotiators from Canada and Mexico have joined U.S. counterparts in Washington on November 27 to discuss the USMCA trade agreement that has been stalled for many months in the U.S. Congress. Recent comments from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Richard Neal suggest
What Markets Aren’t Expecting: Another Iranian Attack
A little more than a week ago, the Defense Intelligence Agency released an updated comprehensive report on Iranian conventional and unconventional military capabilities. The report notes: “Since 2016, [Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah] Khamenei and other senior leaders have suggested that Iran be more proactive in defending its territory and interests
Tech Pain: Some Growing Negatives of Tech Adoption
Two deeply transformative phenomena of contemporary life were born almost at the same time just over a decade ago. In September 2006, Facebook [NASDAQ: FB] went live to anyone with a valid email address; and in January 2007, the first iPhone was launched by Steve Jobs’ now-famous keynote address at the
Stock Performance and Gender Diversity In Management
ESG is growing in prominence in the investment world. The term refers to the incorporation of “environmental, social, and governance” factors into investment analysis. ESG analysis gives interested investors a window into companies’ behavior and its wider impact in areas that they care about. In order to align their investment
Market Summary: November 21, 2019
The U.S. U.S. stocks continue to forge ahead. In the ebb and flow of news related to trade, impeachment, geopolitics, and the 2020 election, we continue to note underlying reasons for strength. (Of course, the market may decline by 1–4% at any time). One of these reasons is the perpetually
Market Summary: November 15, 2019
The U.S. With most major indices having pushed to new highs, a modest correction of a few percent is possible at any time. Still, we anticipate that by the end of the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. stock market as a whole will likely be 8–10% higher than today,
Pension Funds Reaching For Yield – Are They Creating Dangerous Risks?
It has long been obvious to every professional investor, pension administrator or member of a corporate or union pension committee. Now it’s even in The Wall Street Journal: an article on the increasing risks that pension funds are having to take on as they struggle to earn adequate returns in
