Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Ursula von der Leyen and the Shape of Post-Brexit Europe
Last week we mentioned the “election” of a new President of the European Commission (EC), Ursula von der Leyen. We say “election” in quotation marks to remind readers that the European Commission, the primary legislative organ of the European Union, is not comprised of popularly elected members. Von der Leyen
Market Summary
The U.S. The U.S. market got a modest boost from the announcement of a trade truce with China, in which China agreed to boost some U.S. agricultural imports, and the U.S. suspended a tariff hike on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. According to the announcement, the initial deal will
Strategic U.S. Investment in Australian Rare Earths
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross recently took a trip to Australia to help strengthen commercial ties between the two close allies. One of the key points of his visit was to lay the groundwork for discussions of a “U.S.-Australia Critical Minerals Action Plan” that will be finalized in November.
Utilities As Growth Companies
Electric power generation in the United States is a highly regulated industry, and has been since the 1920s and 1930s. The primary Federal entity regulating the production and transmission of electricity is FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, but FERC’s regulation is high-level. The nitty gritty of pricing regulation that
Market Summary
The U.S. The U.S. earnings season will shortly be getting underway. We suspect that as usual, companies have telegraphed enough realism to get analysts’ estimates into reachable or beatable territory. Of course, Mr Market will not just be watching EPS numbers, but looking at margins and watching for forward guidance
The Low-Carbon Economy, Batteries, and Metals
One of the characteristics of liquid hydrocarbons that made them technologically revolutionary was their energy density and storage stability. Eight gallons of gasoline occupy about a cubic foot of space, can be stored under normal ambient pressure and temperature, and when combusted can propel a typical passenger vehicle about 300
The Divergence of Hard and Soft Data
Recession fears have been on the rise in the U.S., and here’s one way to quantify that trend. Below is a chart showing Google News search trends for the topic of “recession.” On a 1-to-100 scale, it hit its peak in early January, 2008, just after the Great Recession had
Market Summary
The U.S. Poor manufacturing data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) sent markets down last Monday morning — or at least, that was the excuse for October market pessimism, in a month which is historically the year’s most volatile. We agree with the analysts — especially the inestimable Tony
Google’s Quantum Computing Coup, and What It May Mean For Bitcoin
Two years ago, we wrote a small primer about quantum computing. Recently, a paper was leaked describing a quantum computing breakthrough by Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG] — prompting a flurry of media stories about what this development might mean. We reprint our description to help you understand what quantum computing is
New North American Trade Deal Makes Progress… Slowly
Investors trying to stay focused on significant economic and financial news have been especially challenged in recent weeks, with high political drama unfolding in Washington and seemingly monopolizing journalists’ attention. One of the longstanding legislative items that could be significant for markets and the U.S. economy is the fate of
The Funhouse World of NIRP and ZIRP: How To Invest When Interest Rates Go Lower For Longer Than You Ever Thought They Could
On September 26, Guild hosted its quarterly conference call, “The Funhouse World of NIRP and ZIRP: How To Invest When Interest Rates Go Lower For Longer Than You Ever Thought They Could.” More than a decade out from the Great Recession, inflation and interest rates around the world remain stuck
Market Summary
The U.S. U.S. markets are entering a typically volatile and unproductive seasonal period, marked in this case by the emergence of new political drama surrounding potential impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Tactical traders may seek to take advantage of seasonal weakness. For our part, we continue to remain longer-term
Real Estate Changes: Colony Goes All-In On Digital, Retailers Build Urban Logistics Centers
Colony Capital [NYSE: CLNY], after a disastrous 2017 merger with NorthStar Asset Management, is reinventing itself, and its plan says something interesting about economic and real estate trends. CEO Thomas Barrack announced two weeks ago that the company would be shedding as much as 90% of its existing portfolio —
What Happens After China’s National Day on October 1?
Every ten years, the People’s Republic of China has a major celebration on October 1, the anniversary of the country’s founding in 1949. This October 1 will be the 70th anniversary — the first major celebration occurring under China’s President For Life, Xi Jinping. The Chinese government has been taking
Europe Posts Dismal Data: What Could That Mean for the Dollar?
The Eurozone manufacturers’ PMI, a monthly survey of purchasing managers’ views about current trends in manufacturing, fell to 45.6 in September, down from 47 in August. Anything below 50 is contractionary, and the September reading is the lowest in almost seven years. Germany’s manufacturing PMI fell to 41.4 in September,
The Attack on Saudi Oil Production: Likely Consequences
Last Saturday, a missile and drone strike on Saudi Arabia took out about half the Kingdom’s daily production capacity — 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of the global total. About a third of that lost capacity was restored rapidly, within 24 hours; on Tuesday, Reuters reported that
