Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Market Summary
The U.S. The U.S. earnings season will shortly be getting underway. We suspect that as usual, companies have telegraphed enough realism to get analysts’ estimates into reachable or beatable territory. Of course, Mr Market will not just be watching EPS numbers, but looking at margins and watching for forward guidance
The Low-Carbon Economy, Batteries, and Metals
One of the characteristics of liquid hydrocarbons that made them technologically revolutionary was their energy density and storage stability. Eight gallons of gasoline occupy about a cubic foot of space, can be stored under normal ambient pressure and temperature, and when combusted can propel a typical passenger vehicle about 300
The Divergence of Hard and Soft Data
Recession fears have been on the rise in the U.S., and here’s one way to quantify that trend. Below is a chart showing Google News search trends for the topic of “recession.” On a 1-to-100 scale, it hit its peak in early January, 2008, just after the Great Recession had
Market Summary
The U.S. Poor manufacturing data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) sent markets down last Monday morning — or at least, that was the excuse for October market pessimism, in a month which is historically the year’s most volatile. We agree with the analysts — especially the inestimable Tony
Google’s Quantum Computing Coup, and What It May Mean For Bitcoin
Two years ago, we wrote a small primer about quantum computing. Recently, a paper was leaked describing a quantum computing breakthrough by Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG] — prompting a flurry of media stories about what this development might mean. We reprint our description to help you understand what quantum computing is
New North American Trade Deal Makes Progress… Slowly
Investors trying to stay focused on significant economic and financial news have been especially challenged in recent weeks, with high political drama unfolding in Washington and seemingly monopolizing journalists’ attention. One of the longstanding legislative items that could be significant for markets and the U.S. economy is the fate of
The Funhouse World of NIRP and ZIRP: How To Invest When Interest Rates Go Lower For Longer Than You Ever Thought They Could
On September 26, Guild hosted its quarterly conference call, “The Funhouse World of NIRP and ZIRP: How To Invest When Interest Rates Go Lower For Longer Than You Ever Thought They Could.” More than a decade out from the Great Recession, inflation and interest rates around the world remain stuck
Market Summary
The U.S. U.S. markets are entering a typically volatile and unproductive seasonal period, marked in this case by the emergence of new political drama surrounding potential impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. Tactical traders may seek to take advantage of seasonal weakness. For our part, we continue to remain longer-term
Real Estate Changes: Colony Goes All-In On Digital, Retailers Build Urban Logistics Centers
Colony Capital [NYSE: CLNY], after a disastrous 2017 merger with NorthStar Asset Management, is reinventing itself, and its plan says something interesting about economic and real estate trends. CEO Thomas Barrack announced two weeks ago that the company would be shedding as much as 90% of its existing portfolio —
What Happens After China’s National Day on October 1?
Every ten years, the People’s Republic of China has a major celebration on October 1, the anniversary of the country’s founding in 1949. This October 1 will be the 70th anniversary — the first major celebration occurring under China’s President For Life, Xi Jinping. The Chinese government has been taking
Europe Posts Dismal Data: What Could That Mean for the Dollar?
The Eurozone manufacturers’ PMI, a monthly survey of purchasing managers’ views about current trends in manufacturing, fell to 45.6 in September, down from 47 in August. Anything below 50 is contractionary, and the September reading is the lowest in almost seven years. Germany’s manufacturing PMI fell to 41.4 in September,
The Attack on Saudi Oil Production: Likely Consequences
Last Saturday, a missile and drone strike on Saudi Arabia took out about half the Kingdom’s daily production capacity — 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of the global total. About a third of that lost capacity was restored rapidly, within 24 hours; on Tuesday, Reuters reported that
Regenerative Agriculture, Market Style
Although there is a wide range of opinion about the accuracy of the models and the severity of the changes that lie ahead, the consensus of climatologists agrees that climate change is real and that human activity is having a significant effect. Readers are certainly familiar with the various debates
Market Summary
The U.S. This week brought another development in an obscure corner of the market — overnight lending, which banks rely on to meet funding needs. Observers had noted for some time that Fed tightening had been draining liquidity from the system; a confluence of funding needs created a shortfall and
Global Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. Outside the view of most individual investors, a “quant quake” erupted as concentrated hedge-fund bets in momentum growth stocks were challenged by a sudden swing towards value stocks and cyclicals. The indexes were placid, but many observers wondered if this might presage an imminent end
China and Iran Deepen Ties
China and Iran Deepen Ties A recent report in the Petroleum Economist provided some confidential details about the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that Iran and China signed in 2016. The Iranian and Chinese foreign ministers met at the end of August to hammer out some of the accord’s details. According
