Guild’s Basic Needs Index
The Real Data Are Weaker Than China Will Admit
The Real Data Are Weaker Than China Will Admit China’s rise as an economic power has been good not just for Chinese businesses selling goods to the rest of the world; it has also been good for global businesses selling goods and services to China. Big U.S. companies have been
Market Summary
The U.S. After a somewhat volatile August, U.S. stocks remain in the trading range where they have been for the past several months, as trade worries converge with recession fears. After the much-watched inversion of the two- to ten-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, financial news was full of recession
Norway Moves To Increase U.S. Stock Holdings
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (formally, the Government Pension Fund of Norway) was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum industry. With over $1 trillion in assets, heavily allocated towards equities, it currently owns about 1.3% of global stocks. The Fund has undergone a number
A Tale of Two Chinas
For the past year, concern about the intensifying trade war between China and the United States has gone hand-in-hand with concern about the health of the Chinese economy. China’s dramatic rise as an economic power over the past two decades, and the deep interdependence of the global economy, means that
China, the Yuan, and Capital Controls
At the beginning of August, when the U.S. administration announced that it would levy tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports, the Chinese responded by allowing the Chinese yuan to depreciate against its target basket of other currencies — but only by 1%. And in the wake of last week’s tweets
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. market is still in a correction or sideways mode, with both macro news and fears in evidence, as well as seasonal effects. We are neither as pessimistic as some news media have become, nor are we extremely enthusiastic at the present juncture. We
Don’t Short the Back Bench When It Comes to Entertainment Content
Don’t Short the Back Bench When It Comes to Entertainment Content Although more controversial game titles usually make the headlines, the sales and revenue stalwarts for many video game companies are established sports titles. Electronic Arts [NASDAQ: EA], for example, has the year’s 8th-best-selling title in a decades-old franchise: “Madden
Big Tech’s Slow Migration From Silicon Valley
Over the past decades, California has learned that all of its sun, forward-thinking culture, educated workforce, and entrepreneurial spirit couldn’t stop the gradually accelerating exodus of the aerospace industry from the Golden State. There were many factors involved, of course – but the point is that regional dominance in an
Market Summary
The U.S. A correction is underway in U.S. stocks, as stock and bond markets price in trade war and recession risk and investors seek safe havens. We remind readers that part of the generally accepted bullish thesis at the beginning of the year was that a more accommodative Fed was
Markets Reassess the Fed’s Interest Rate Trajectory
The widely watched two-to-ten-year U.S. Treasury interest rate curve inverted briefly on Wednesday, and remains essentially flat as of this writing. The yield on the longest-dated Treasuries fell to all-time lows. The backdrop, we trust, is well-known to our readers: anxiety about trade wars, fears about slowing global growth, and
The Fed Steps Into Real-Time Payments
On August 5, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that its governing board had voted four to one to back the creation of a real-time, round-the-clock payment and settlement service, to be called FedNow. The goal of this service would be to set up an infrastructure to allow payments between banks
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S.: Stocks, Gold, Cryptos Since we wrote last week, a trifecta of disappointing Fed communication, trade-war escalation, and self-reinforcing recession fears have accompanied an S&P 500 decline of about 4.7% as of this writing, and a strong rally in bonds (as interest rates decline) and gold.
Modern Monetary Theory and the Case For Gold
Modern Monetary Theory and the Case For Gold U.S. investors woke up on Wednesday to news of surprisingly aggressive rate cuts from India, New Zealand, and Thailand, as more Asia Pacific central banks act to preempt a global economic slowdown. At its last meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve called an
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the benchmark fed funds rate by 0.25% on Wednesday, as expected, and also ended the runoff of its portfolio of bonds a month early. Fed Chair Powell said, “The outlook for the U.S. economy remains favorable and this
What Microsoft Has To Teach the Other Tech Leaders
Over the past year, three U.S. tech giants have been jostling for position atop the list of largest companies by market capitalization: Amazon [NASDAQ: AMZN], Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL], and Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT]. All are valued above $900 billion, with MSFT recently taking the top spot — at $1.07 trillion as
Market Summary
The U.S. Earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing. While earnings growth has stalled after the tax-break driven pace of growth that was enjoyed in 2018, it remains broadly within the trend of growth that has followed the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Source: Bloomberg, LLP Of course, there
