Guild’s Basic Needs Index
THE NEW ROBOT OVERLORDS
1. Hong Kong in the crosshairs of the trade war. Hong Kong is experiencing massive protests against the Chinese government’s erosions of the city’s traditional liberties and democratic governance. These protests have occasioned the introduction of a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress that would strip the city of its
Market Summary
Market summary. The U.S. stock market continues its rally, with greater prospects for a friendly Federal Reserve, and relief over the settlement of possible trade troubles with Mexico – at least for now. The amelioration of these overhangs and pessimism causes us to continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks,
A longer-term perspective on Mexico.
A longer-term perspective on Mexico. It’s easy for investors to be captivated by headlines; in the case of Mexico, these can be mystifying. It’s hard to understand Mexico’s motivation for continuing to allow the migrant flows that have caused concern in the U.S. and angered the U.S. administration. In a
India, Self Driving Cars, Market Summary
Executive Summary 1. We’re long-term bulls on India. A recent U.S. action rescinded some tariff exemptions that India had enjoyed as a developing nation. We don’t feel this is a significant event, and anticipate that the friendly relationship between the U.S. and Indian administrations will continue. We see policy continuity
Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as
Emerging Markets Beyond China
Emerging Markets Beyond China: Reforms and Opportunities in India and Brazil Six weeks ago in these pages, we wrote that 2019 might be the year during which emerging markets finally begin to outperform. We argued that after a decade of emerging-market underpeformance, global investment flows would begin favoring EM assets
How Technology Keeps Inflation Low
Executive Summary 1. Deflationary tech is here to stay. In his May press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited what he believed were “transitory factors” that resulted in a low inflation print over the past 12 months. Although many economists and officials talk about inflation data as if they were
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture the Big Picture
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt. Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a
Goldilocks Data and a Policy-Driven Rally
The old saying is that stock markets must climb a wall of worry, and we have certainly seen that wall-climbing play out over the past several years. Every day, it seems, we can open the pages of the newspaper (or more likely, check our online news feed) and find headlines
The healthcare decline — opportunity or trap?
Healthcare: Buying Opportunity or Trap? Taking Stock of Past Lessons The strong recovery of the U.S. stock market in 2019 year to date has not treated all sectors equally (rallies rarely do). Healthcare has been a particularly noteworthy laggard in spite of fairly consistent earnings growth, having gone sideways while
We are bullish on emerging markets, which are looking up.
That Keeps Us Bullish: Central Banks Are In Easing Mode, Emerging Markets Still Looking Good Last week, we wrote that we see the possibility that finally, after years of underperformance, the stars might be beginning to align for emerging markets in 2019. Overarchingly, here’s what emerging markets need to see
