Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Chinese Banks: No Danger Now, But Watch Carefully
Chinese Banks: No Danger Now, But Watch Carefully On the fringes of the Chinese financial system, signs of stress continue to appear, so far restricted to some small banks and trust companies. The central government is continuing its efforts to unwind the excesses that built up after 2009, when it
The Longest Expansion
The Longest Expansion The economic expansion that began in 2009 has now crossed the threshold and become the longest period of economic growth in U.S. history: Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Of course, this milestone has led to two responses: analysts and central bank economists reminding us that “expansions
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. The S&P 500’s June rally has extended into July. Although the U.S. market remains strong, it is also somewhat anxiously focused on the Federal Reserve and on trade developments. We believe that the fundamental supports of the rally are still firmly in place. The U.S.
Buybacks Will Continue To Support Stock Prices in 2019
Buybacks Will Continue To Support Stock Prices in 2019 We’ve often noted that one of the major facts of the post-2009 stock market rally has been the role played by companies buying back their own shares. By some analyses, company buybacks have been the largest net buyers of stocks over
The War for Ai Tech Talent
The War For AI Tech Talent — and How the U.S. Is Winning It In early July, as reported in the Financial Times, a group of British computing scientists decamped to Silicon Valley to form a new quantum computing startup, PsiQ. Quantum computing, as our regular readers will recall, is
Market Summary
The U.S. With a truce in the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. stock market has risen to new all-time highs. We’re now on the cusp of earnings season, which will begin in about two weeks. U.S. and global data such as PMI reports have recently been signaling possible slowdowns in
Socially Responsible Investing
B Corporations Feeding Millennial Appetite For Social Responsibility There has never been a watertight separation between business activities and the ethical concerns of those who run businesses and those who invest in them. Over the past several decades, however, there has been a growing interest on the part of many
The Deep Roots Of The College Debt Crisis
America’s College Funding Debacle Has Deep Roots From tuition-free college to student loan forgiveness, the Democratic contenders to challenge President Trump are floating many proposals to address the troubled U.S. higher education system. Those troubles are legion — essentially, education costs that have been rising at several times the rate
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. stock market is having a modest pullback after touching old highs. Given the global backdrop of central banks and indebted governments with no appetite for higher rates or stronger currencies, we believe that stocks will have a long-term upward bias, supported by low
Facebook’ Power Play
Facebook’s Power Play Last week, Facebook [NASDAQ: FB] finally announced its long-rumored digital currency initiative. Although bitcoin had been rallying since April, since the announcement it has risen almost 25%, as of this writing. Why the boost for bitcoin? Won’t FB’s currency — called “Libra” — be competition for bitcoin?
Europe caves on Russia — Again
Europe Caves on Russia… Again True to form, the Council of Europe has fallen into appeasement of the illiberal regime that lies on the European Union’s eastern flank. Russia had been suspended from the continent’s human rights watchdog council in 2014 as a result of its annexation of Crimea in
THE NEW ROBOT OVERLORDS
1. Hong Kong in the crosshairs of the trade war. Hong Kong is experiencing massive protests against the Chinese government’s erosions of the city’s traditional liberties and democratic governance. These protests have occasioned the introduction of a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress that would strip the city of its
Market Summary
Market summary. The U.S. stock market continues its rally, with greater prospects for a friendly Federal Reserve, and relief over the settlement of possible trade troubles with Mexico – at least for now. The amelioration of these overhangs and pessimism causes us to continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks,
A longer-term perspective on Mexico.
A longer-term perspective on Mexico. It’s easy for investors to be captivated by headlines; in the case of Mexico, these can be mystifying. It’s hard to understand Mexico’s motivation for continuing to allow the migrant flows that have caused concern in the U.S. and angered the U.S. administration. In a
