Guild’s Basic Needs Index

THE NEW ROBOT OVERLORDS

1.  Hong Kong in the crosshairs of the trade war.  Hong Kong is experiencing massive protests against the Chinese government’s erosions of the city’s traditional liberties and democratic governance.  These protests have occasioned the introduction of a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress that would strip the city of its

Read More »

Market Summary

Market summary. The U.S. stock market continues its rally, with greater prospects for a friendly Federal Reserve, and relief over the settlement of possible trade troubles with Mexico – at least for now. The amelioration of these overhangs and pessimism causes us to continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks,

Read More »

A longer-term perspective on Mexico.

A longer-term perspective on Mexico. It’s easy for investors to be captivated by headlines; in the case of Mexico, these can be mystifying. It’s hard to understand Mexico’s motivation for continuing to allow the migrant flows that have caused concern in the U.S. and angered the U.S. administration. In a

Read More »

India, Self Driving Cars, Market Summary

Executive Summary 1.  We’re long-term bulls on India.  A recent U.S. action rescinded some tariff exemptions that India had enjoyed as a developing nation.  We don’t feel this is a significant event, and anticipate that the friendly relationship between the U.S. and Indian administrations will continue.  We see policy continuity

Read More »

Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan

Executive Summary 1.  Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan.  Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline.  Saber rattling goes on as

Read More »

Emerging Markets Beyond China

Emerging Markets Beyond China:  Reforms and Opportunities in India and Brazil Six weeks ago in these pages, we wrote that 2019 might be the year during which emerging markets finally begin to outperform.  We argued that after a decade of emerging-market underpeformance, global investment flows would begin favoring EM assets

Read More »

How Technology Keeps Inflation Low

Executive Summary 1.  Deflationary tech is here to stay.  In his May press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited what he believed were “transitory factors” that resulted in a low inflation print over the past 12 months.  Although many economists and officials talk about inflation data as if they were

Read More »

Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture the Big Picture

Trade War Static:  Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt.  Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a

Read More »

Goldilocks Data and a Policy-Driven Rally

The old saying is that stock markets must climb a wall of worry, and we have certainly seen that wall-climbing play out over the past several years.  Every day, it seems, we can open the pages of the newspaper (or more likely, check our online news feed) and find headlines

Read More »

The healthcare decline — opportunity or trap?

Healthcare: Buying Opportunity or Trap?  Taking Stock of Past Lessons The strong recovery of the U.S. stock market in 2019 year to date has not treated all sectors equally (rallies rarely do).  Healthcare has been a particularly noteworthy laggard in spite of fairly consistent earnings growth, having gone sideways while

Read More »

We’ve moved!

Here you’ll find the historical archives of Guild’s Global Market Commentary, and our occasional public posts. To read all our content, please visit our Substack page to subscribe.