Guild’s Basic Needs Index

Green Shoots in Emerging Markets Means Opportunities For U.S. Investors

In the period since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. stock market has moved ahead — while emerging-market stocks have spent almost a decade basically treading water.   Emerging Markets Have Underperformed the U.S. In the Post-Crisis Period Source:  Bloomberg LLP For a time, beginning partway through 2016, the

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Market Summary

Market Summary The U.S. economy is much stronger than some of the media’s pessimistic reports.  January was affected by weather and the after-effects of the government shutdown.  Since that time, U.S. economic growth has improved; we remain optimistic that the U.S. economy will grow by at least 2.4% in 2019. 

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The “second wave of the shale revolution.”

In 2015, the U.S. removed a restriction that had been in place since the 1973 Arab oil embargo — one that had prohibited crude oil exports.  The result could be described, as we quote from in our headline from the head of the International Energy Agency, as a “second wave”

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Huawei’s Undersea Ventures and Global Internet Security

Huawei’s Undersea Ventures and Global Internet Security Many intelligence analysts and agencies around the world are concerned that Chinese tech giant Huawei, as it sells hardware, software, and services around the globe, is working hand-in-glove with the Chinese government to further its geopolitical ambitions.  These concerns are not limited to

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Market Summary

Market Summary Bullish news came Wednesday from the Federal Reserve, at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no further rate increases in 2019, and a single rate increase in 2020.  We noted in last week’s letter that many global central banks are currently supportive of stock markets, and that includes

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China’s Premier Talks About Further Easing

After the closing session of the National People’s Congress, Chinese second-in-command Li Keqiang addressed various measures that the Chinese government has taken to spur economic growth, and suggested more to come in the future. Source:  Xinhua Li noted cuts to value-added taxes (slated to take effect on April 1), cuts

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Chinese New Home Prices Rally: A Sign That Stimulus Is Working

As our regular readers know, we like to point out that the Chinese stock market’s performance is much more closely related to retail investor sentiment than are other major world markets.  This is because the Chinese domestic stock market (“A shares”) is relatively small compared to the Chinese economy, relatively

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Global Market Commentary

Executive Summary 1.  The Trump administration deepens its drive for transparent healthcare pricing.  In February, the Trump administration asked for comments on a proposed rule with potentially vast effects on the entire U.S. healthcare sector.  A rule that came into effect in January already required hospitals to make their list

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Chinese Domestic Stocks Get A Boost From Global Indexer

Last year, MSCI — the company that constructs the indexes underlying many major ETFs and benchmarks — began to incorporate some domestically traded Chinese stocks into those indexes.  These stocks, called “A shares” to distinguish them from other classes of Chinese shares that trade on exchanges outside the mainland, had

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Copper’s Rally

Several base metals have rallied strongly in 2019: as of this writing, copper, nickel, and zinc are all up more than 10%.  Copper — the “red metal” — is often referred to as “Dr Copper” because of its alleged status as a leading economic indicator.  It is the leading industrial

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Market Summary for the Week of February 22, 2019

Market Summary for Week of February 22, 2019 This week we are keeping it short. We remain bullish on the U.S., and on several foreign markets. The U.S. market is still a buy, in our opinion. Breakouts of the type we have recently seen offer opportunity for higher U.S. stock

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Is It Time To Buy China?

Getting Bullish on China After a dismal 2018, the Chinese stock market has been one of the world’s better performers in 2019, with the MSCI China index up almost 13% as of this writing. Source: Bloomberg LLP As we have noted in several recent letters, the poor performance of the

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Market Summary For the week ending February 15, 2019

          The U.S. Economy and Markets In spite of slight deceleration from the GDP growth rate posted in 2018, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and we anticipate that as 2019 unfolds, growth will strengthen.  U.S. markets have rapidly recovered from their fourth-quarter swoon, and while we believe that

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