Guild’s Basic Needs Index

Morgan Stanley Goes Where the Money Is

Morgan Stanley [NYSE:  MS] is acquiring a Canadian firm, Solium Capital, which manages stock-compensation plans for about 3,000 companies.  Collectively, Solium’s clients have a million employees — disproportionately young, and disproportionately employed in high-tech, high-growth startup companies (including, for example, Nextdoor, Sonos, Dropbox, Stripe, and Instacart).  This acquisition makes sense

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Brazilian Politics Is Changing — And It’s Not Just A New President

Brazil’s 81-seat senate just elected a new leader.  (The “president of the senate” is third in line to Brazil’s presidency.)  It was not the old leader, who had served four two-year terms in the role: a well-known deal-maker who, like many establishment politicians in Brazil, is facing allegations of corruption. 

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Some GDP Deceleration, But U.S. Corporates and Consumers Are Still In Good Health

Some GDP Deceleration, But U.S. Corporates and Consumers Are Still In Good Health The partial government shutdown in early 2019 has delayed the Commerce Department’s official report on fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth until February 28.  In the absence of official data, polls of economists are providing some picture: about 2.6% annualized

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Chinese Banks Get Creative

China’s fourth-largest bank, the Bank of China (not to be confused with the state bank, the People’s Bank of China) issued $6 billion worth of perpetual bonds in late January. A “perpetual bond” is a bond with no maturity date; that is, it simply pays an income stream forever.  The

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Railroad Earnings Calls Suggest the U.S. Is Doing Fine

Executives at two of the big U.S. railroad companies, CSX [NYSE:  CSX] and Union Pacific [NYSE:  UNP] report that growing shipment volumes lead them to feel optimistic about the growth of the U.S. economy.  (CSX reported on January 16, and UNP on January 24.) Railroads are often considered a bellwether

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Market Summary for the week ending February 1st, 2019.

Market Summary  The U.S. Economy and Stock Market The U.S. economy continues to move ahead as do the U.S. stock market and U.S. corporate profits, which as we all know, lead the outlook for stocks.  Most agree that the growth rate of the economy will slow in 2019, after the

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Market Summary for the Week of January 25, 2019.

The U.S. Market and Economy The U.S. economy is strong, although slowing from the very rapid growth of 2018.  For 2019, we anticipate economic growth of 2.3% before inflation and 4.1% after inflation.  U.S. stocks are in a volatile state with slow appreciation toward a rising market overall for 2019.

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Forget the Trade War: The U.S. May Have Started a Tax-Cut Trend

The trade conflict is still underway; we just read this morning about the statement made by China’s vice president, Wang Qishan, criticizing the U.S. administration’s trade policies at Davos. We continue to believe that a deal will be reached in the near term on the disagreements that are easier to

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Market Summary for the Week of January 18, 2019.

 U.S. and World Outlook As we noted last week, the U.S. economy is still strong; the market fears that accompanied the sharp late-2018 correction are beginning to dissipate slightly, and investors are showing themselves willing to hunt for bargains.  Some stocks have obviously reset to more attractive price levels; we

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Teresa May’s Brexit Deal Defeated By Parliament — What Comes Next?

On Tuesday, 118 members of British Prime Minister Teresa May’s Conservative Party broke ranks and voted against her proposed deal for the UK to leave the European Union.  The deal was defeated 432 to 202, showcasing the profound dissatisfaction that UK lawmakers feel for the deal as it stands —

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Japan Defies Its “Demographic Destiny”

Japan Defies Its “Demographic Destiny” With a population that is among the world’s longest lived and least fertile, Japan has long been seen by analysts as a leading case study in the disaster that supposedly awaits advanced nations with aging populations.  That is, the economy will slow to a best-case

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What to watch for the week ending on January 11, 2019.

Executive Summary 1.  Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are.  Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries.  Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of

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