Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Chinese Banks Get Creative
China’s fourth-largest bank, the Bank of China (not to be confused with the state bank, the People’s Bank of China) issued $6 billion worth of perpetual bonds in late January. A “perpetual bond” is a bond with no maturity date; that is, it simply pays an income stream forever. The
Railroad Earnings Calls Suggest the U.S. Is Doing Fine
Executives at two of the big U.S. railroad companies, CSX [NYSE: CSX] and Union Pacific [NYSE: UNP] report that growing shipment volumes lead them to feel optimistic about the growth of the U.S. economy. (CSX reported on January 16, and UNP on January 24.) Railroads are often considered a bellwether
Market Summary for the week ending February 1st, 2019.
Market Summary The U.S. Economy and Stock Market The U.S. economy continues to move ahead as do the U.S. stock market and U.S. corporate profits, which as we all know, lead the outlook for stocks. Most agree that the growth rate of the economy will slow in 2019, after the
Chinese Economic Statistics: Why You Shouldn’t Trust Them, and What You Should Watch Instead
Here is another note in our ongoing series of articles addressing China’s economic situation. Many times in the past, we have pointed out that official Chinese economic statistics can mislead analysts, and we suspect that we’re about to see a manifestation of that problem. Here’s why. At the beginning of
Market Summary for the Week of January 25, 2019.
The U.S. Market and Economy The U.S. economy is strong, although slowing from the very rapid growth of 2018. For 2019, we anticipate economic growth of 2.3% before inflation and 4.1% after inflation. U.S. stocks are in a volatile state with slow appreciation toward a rising market overall for 2019.
China Slowdown Means the End of “Policy Tightening” From Asian Central Banks
The Chinese growth slowdown that we’ve commented on in recent letters — which was underway well before the beginning of escalated trade tensions last year — will probably lead regional central banks to ease, or to remain steady rather than tightening monetary conditions in 2019. While China has done some
Forget the Trade War: The U.S. May Have Started a Tax-Cut Trend
The trade conflict is still underway; we just read this morning about the statement made by China’s vice president, Wang Qishan, criticizing the U.S. administration’s trade policies at Davos. We continue to believe that a deal will be reached in the near term on the disagreements that are easier to
Market Summary for the Week of January 18, 2019.
U.S. and World Outlook As we noted last week, the U.S. economy is still strong; the market fears that accompanied the sharp late-2018 correction are beginning to dissipate slightly, and investors are showing themselves willing to hunt for bargains. Some stocks have obviously reset to more attractive price levels; we
Teresa May’s Brexit Deal Defeated By Parliament — What Comes Next?
On Tuesday, 118 members of British Prime Minister Teresa May’s Conservative Party broke ranks and voted against her proposed deal for the UK to leave the European Union. The deal was defeated 432 to 202, showcasing the profound dissatisfaction that UK lawmakers feel for the deal as it stands —
Japan Defies Its “Demographic Destiny”
Japan Defies Its “Demographic Destiny” With a population that is among the world’s longest lived and least fertile, Japan has long been seen by analysts as a leading case study in the disaster that supposedly awaits advanced nations with aging populations. That is, the economy will slow to a best-case
What to watch for the week ending on January 11, 2019.
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of
Market Summary For 2019
As we have done for decades, we are writing with our favorite global investments for 2019. This prediction is for the first half of 2019. If there is no world recession in 2019 and one is not expected for 2020, or if a good trade settlement is reached with China,
Market Summary for the week of December 28, 2018
Market Summary We begin by wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019. The U.S. stock market just concluded the worst week near the Christmas holidays in many years, and some stock market participants have been panicking. Then the economic news arrived yesterday morning. Mastercard [NYSE: MA] announced that holiday
Market Summary for Week of December 17th, 2018
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S.
