Guild’s Basic Needs Index
What to watch for the week ending on January 11, 2019.
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of
Market Summary For 2019
As we have done for decades, we are writing with our favorite global investments for 2019. This prediction is for the first half of 2019. If there is no world recession in 2019 and one is not expected for 2020, or if a good trade settlement is reached with China,
Market Summary for the week of December 28, 2018
Market Summary We begin by wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019. The U.S. stock market just concluded the worst week near the Christmas holidays in many years, and some stock market participants have been panicking. Then the economic news arrived yesterday morning. Mastercard [NYSE: MA] announced that holiday
Market Summary for Week of December 17th, 2018
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S.
Crypto Crooks: A Big Reason Why Cryptos Keep Declining
A report just issued by the Blockchain Transparency Institute (BTI) concludes that 80% of the trading volume of the most significant cryptocurrency pairs consists of wash trades. A wash trade is one in which a malicious actor, human or machine, places both buy and sell orders in an attempt to
China’s Hacking Continues, Targeting Universities, Military Contractors
In early November, we wrote about the rise of state actors in cybercrime. pointing out the particular interests and strategies of Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China in their attacks on U.S. targets. A few days ago, The Wall Street Journal reported on a new cybersecurity assessment of the U.S.
China’s Fragility: Why China Will Not Overtake the U.S. Any Time Soon
Over the past several years, we have written often about the views of China that are commonly promoted in mainstream news and the financial press — views that China is an economic and geopolitical juggernaut which could soon eclipse the United States in power and influence. We do not believe
World Economy and Trade: Where We Stand As We Close the Year
Since the February correction, the U.S. stock market in 2018 has struggled under two major psychological clouds: the risks posed by global trade conflicts, especially the trade relationship between the U.S. and China; and the end of the post-crisis era of ultra-low interest rates. Escalating trade conflicts caused analysts to
Biotech in 2019: Gene Therapies, Cancer Immunotherapies, and mRNA
2018 has not been kind to many expensive stocks — that is, to those that trade at elevated price-to-earnings ratios. The technology giants were the last to fall as the rolling correction finally reached them in October, and fall they did, with the Nasdaq 100 index down 16.3% between October
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here On October 4, we provided a brief summary of the Brexit negotiations — the talks between the UK and the European Union over how the UK will depart the EU, following a referendum of its citizens in 2016. Brexit fears
China’s Exports and the Trade War
California Wildfires Our letter is slightly abbreviated this week, as several of Guild’s staff have been affected by the southern California wildfires. We are all safe, although many friends and family members have lost their homes; thank you for your concern and calls. Our thoughts and prayers go out to
Market Summary for the Week of November 5th, 2018
As investors have seen repeatedly for the last 80 years, U.S. government gridlock has generally been good for U.S. stocks. “Gridlock” just means that neither political party controls both houses of Congress and the presidency. Historically, gridlock has produced few new initiatives that either major political party can tout, but it
