Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here On October 4, we provided a brief summary of the Brexit negotiations — the talks between the UK and the European Union over how the UK will depart the EU, following a referendum of its citizens in 2016. Brexit fears
China’s Exports and the Trade War
California Wildfires Our letter is slightly abbreviated this week, as several of Guild’s staff have been affected by the southern California wildfires. We are all safe, although many friends and family members have lost their homes; thank you for your concern and calls. Our thoughts and prayers go out to
Market Summary for the Week of November 5th, 2018
As investors have seen repeatedly for the last 80 years, U.S. government gridlock has generally been good for U.S. stocks. “Gridlock” just means that neither political party controls both houses of Congress and the presidency. Historically, gridlock has produced few new initiatives that either major political party can tout, but it
November 1st, 2018 Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. Economy and Market: For Now, Fears Are Overriding Fundamentals The U.S. economic picture continues to be strong in spite of fears about a slowdown. From and economic point of view, strong GDP growth in the third calendar quarter of 3.5% brings GDP growth for the first
U.S. Market Volatility and China’s Woes
A Typical Seasonal Correction and Its Excuses The correction that hit U.S. stocks last week was a very typical seasonal affair — a little later than usual, but very much in the normal script. One of the typical things about it was that the reasons given for it were found
Brexit Enters the End Game
In June, 2016, voters in the UK delivered one of that year’s big political surprises. Against the predictions of pollsters and pundits, they voted, by a narrow margin, to leave the European Union (EU). It was one of a series of big surprises that humbled analysts around the world who
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy?
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy? The global landscape of economic growth is one of the “critical variables” that we watch as a barometer of recession risk. A year ago we reported that the world was enjoying a coordinated uptick in economic growth. (Our regular
Market Summary for the Week of September 10th, 2018
Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level
China Bails Out Peer-to-Peer Lenders
For several years we have been alerting our readers to the dangers posed by the over-leverage of the Chinese financial system. Eventually this over-leverage could result in a financial crisis within China. Direct contagion would be limited because China’s financial system is largely separate from the rest of the world’s,
Index Shake-Up Could Give Tech A Boost
S&P Dow Jones Indices is the company which maintains the GICS — the Global Industry Classification System. That system assigns companies to specific industry groups; it’s important because so many exchange-traded funds are grouped together on the basis of these classifications. That can mean that many stocks get caught in
Market Summary: Don’t Fear the September Chop
U.S. and Global Stocks: The U.S. Remains the Place to Be Here we are in September, and as we have mentioned before September is a month for market adjustments before we move into what is usually the strongest period for U.S. stocks, which is from October through April. There have
Market Summary for the Week of August 27th, 2018
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly
