Guild’s Basic Needs Index
U.S. Market Volatility and China’s Woes
A Typical Seasonal Correction and Its Excuses The correction that hit U.S. stocks last week was a very typical seasonal affair — a little later than usual, but very much in the normal script. One of the typical things about it was that the reasons given for it were found
Brexit Enters the End Game
In June, 2016, voters in the UK delivered one of that year’s big political surprises. Against the predictions of pollsters and pundits, they voted, by a narrow margin, to leave the European Union (EU). It was one of a series of big surprises that humbled analysts around the world who
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy?
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy? The global landscape of economic growth is one of the “critical variables” that we watch as a barometer of recession risk. A year ago we reported that the world was enjoying a coordinated uptick in economic growth. (Our regular
Market Summary for the Week of September 10th, 2018
Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level
China Bails Out Peer-to-Peer Lenders
For several years we have been alerting our readers to the dangers posed by the over-leverage of the Chinese financial system. Eventually this over-leverage could result in a financial crisis within China. Direct contagion would be limited because China’s financial system is largely separate from the rest of the world’s,
Index Shake-Up Could Give Tech A Boost
S&P Dow Jones Indices is the company which maintains the GICS — the Global Industry Classification System. That system assigns companies to specific industry groups; it’s important because so many exchange-traded funds are grouped together on the basis of these classifications. That can mean that many stocks get caught in
Market Summary: Don’t Fear the September Chop
U.S. and Global Stocks: The U.S. Remains the Place to Be Here we are in September, and as we have mentioned before September is a month for market adjustments before we move into what is usually the strongest period for U.S. stocks, which is from October through April. There have
Market Summary for the Week of August 27th, 2018
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly
Turkey Creates Big Headaches For Europe
Turkey and Europe When strongmen hit a wall, it’s usually bad for their currencies. This has recently been proven in spades in Venezuela, as the endgame rolls on for the experiment of “Bolivarian socialism.” It’s also proving to be the case in Turkey, and that has many implications for Europe.
Crypto and Blockchain: Going Mainstream
Crypto and Blockchain: Going Mainstream Blockchain Research Cryptos may be in a bear market, but blockchain investment keeps ramping up. Blockchain refers to all the various forms of “distributed ledgers,” and are one of the key technological innovations underlying cryptocurrencies. Distributed ledgers allow data to be securely exchanged directly between
Market Summary for the week of August 20th, 2018
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important
Brexit and What Comes After
Brexit is grinding closer, and no political solution enjoys enough support to find its way to implementation. For what it’s worth, the consensus of analysts is that UK’s Prime Minister Teresa May will eke out agreement on a deal, one that possibly includes pushing out more difficult negotiations to the
Bad Apples In Emerging Markets
Where Are the Worst EM Troubles? Emerging-market stocks, for U.S. investors, have not been treated kindly by trade-war saber rattling during 2018 — as of this writing, down more than 17% from their late-January highs. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP Until trade conflicts took center stage, though, emerging markets performed well
