Guild’s Basic Needs Index
China’s Fragility: Why China Will Not Overtake the U.S. Any Time Soon
Over the past several years, we have written often about the views of China that are commonly promoted in mainstream news and the financial press — views that China is an economic and geopolitical juggernaut which could soon eclipse the United States in power and influence. We do not believe
World Economy and Trade: Where We Stand As We Close the Year
Since the February correction, the U.S. stock market in 2018 has struggled under two major psychological clouds: the risks posed by global trade conflicts, especially the trade relationship between the U.S. and China; and the end of the post-crisis era of ultra-low interest rates. Escalating trade conflicts caused analysts to
Biotech in 2019: Gene Therapies, Cancer Immunotherapies, and mRNA
2018 has not been kind to many expensive stocks — that is, to those that trade at elevated price-to-earnings ratios. The technology giants were the last to fall as the rolling correction finally reached them in October, and fall they did, with the Nasdaq 100 index down 16.3% between October
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here On October 4, we provided a brief summary of the Brexit negotiations — the talks between the UK and the European Union over how the UK will depart the EU, following a referendum of its citizens in 2016. Brexit fears
China’s Exports and the Trade War
California Wildfires Our letter is slightly abbreviated this week, as several of Guild’s staff have been affected by the southern California wildfires. We are all safe, although many friends and family members have lost their homes; thank you for your concern and calls. Our thoughts and prayers go out to
Market Summary for the Week of November 5th, 2018
As investors have seen repeatedly for the last 80 years, U.S. government gridlock has generally been good for U.S. stocks. “Gridlock” just means that neither political party controls both houses of Congress and the presidency. Historically, gridlock has produced few new initiatives that either major political party can tout, but it
November 1st, 2018 Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. Economy and Market: For Now, Fears Are Overriding Fundamentals The U.S. economic picture continues to be strong in spite of fears about a slowdown. From and economic point of view, strong GDP growth in the third calendar quarter of 3.5% brings GDP growth for the first
U.S. Market Volatility and China’s Woes
A Typical Seasonal Correction and Its Excuses The correction that hit U.S. stocks last week was a very typical seasonal affair — a little later than usual, but very much in the normal script. One of the typical things about it was that the reasons given for it were found
Brexit Enters the End Game
In June, 2016, voters in the UK delivered one of that year’s big political surprises. Against the predictions of pollsters and pundits, they voted, by a narrow margin, to leave the European Union (EU). It was one of a series of big surprises that humbled analysts around the world who
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy?
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy? The global landscape of economic growth is one of the “critical variables” that we watch as a barometer of recession risk. A year ago we reported that the world was enjoying a coordinated uptick in economic growth. (Our regular
