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Recession Outlook Update

Executive Summary Recession outlook: an update.  The U.S. market remains locked in a tug-of-war between rising interest rates and rising earnings.  The market is about unchanged this year after a great deal of fluctuation.  After several recent prominent earnings reports from major companies which had positive comments about continued growth,

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Emerging Markets and Trade War Fears

If an impending trade war is about to create havoc for emerging markets, someone forgot to tell investors.  Emerging-market equity inflows have continued apace since the specter of a trade war emerged at the beginning of March.  (Dollar-denominated emerging-market debt moved to modest outflows, moving similarly to U.S. investment-grade corporate

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The Global Reform Wave Rolls On

The Global Reform Wave Rolls On:  Former Leaders Jailed in Brazil and South Korea Almost two years ago, we wrote about the rise of populist and anti-corruption movements around the world, and told you that we believed these movements would expand, intensify, and disrupt global politics and economics, possibly for decades. 

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Guild Investment Podcast April Friday the 13th 2018

Our senior research analyst Rudi von Abele and executive vice president Tim Shirata summarizes the global markets and the recent U.S. market correction. They discuss highlights on the sectors and industries that will benefit in this environment.

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The Robot Apocalypse Isn’t Coming

An idea that was once a twinkle in the eye of radicals is gaining ground among the Silicon Valley intelligentsia, including Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.  The concept is that the disruption caused by automation and artificial intelligence is going to be so severe that half the workforce, or maybe

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Monty Guild Podcast March 29 2018

Our founder and chief investment officer Monty Guild summarizes the global markets and the recent U.S. market correction. He highlights the sectors and industries that will benefit in this environment.

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Kicking the Bull Market’s Tires

Kicking the Bull Market’s Tires Since the beginning of the year, we have been letting readers know that we expected greater volatility in 2018.  Such calm predictions are easy to make before the volatility has arrived.  Once it has arrived, of course, it feels much more alarming than it did

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With Big Tech Under Fire, Is Tech Still A Key Sector For Investors? 

We Say Yes.  Last week, several major news outlets reported that detailed data harvested from Facebook [NASDAQ:  FB] had been pressed into service by political consultancy firms under questionable circumstances.  The data were harvested by researchers who were abiding by FB’s then-current policies when they collected them.  But observers and

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With Big Tech Under Fire, Is Tech Still A Key Sector For Investors? We Say Yes.

Last week, several major news outlets reported that detailed data harvested from Facebook [NASDAQ:  FB] had been pressed into service by political consultancy firms under questionable circumstances.  The data were harvested by researchers who were abiding by FB’s then-current policies when they collected them.  But observers and some FB insiders,

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February’s Goldilocks Jobs Numbers

Among many investors and analysts, there’s a growing sense that rising growth, inflation, and interest rates are bringing and end to the long “Goldilocks” phase of the bull market that began nine years ago this month.  That doesn’t mean that stocks have no more gains to deliver — far from

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Monty Guild Podcast March 9 2018

Our founder and chief investment officer Monty Guild summarizes the global markets and the recent U.S. market correction. He highlights the sectors and industries that will benefit in this environment.

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