Guild’s Basic Needs Index

Why The World Is Buying Japanese Stocks

Japan’s Prime Minister Cements Power and Drives Japanese Stocks Higher On September 28, Japan’s main political opposition announced that it wouldn’t be fielding any candidates in the snap election that had been called by Prime Minister Abe.  The Japanese stock market had been having an unexceptional year, lagging other global

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Are Markets “Efficient”?

What Richard Thaler Has Taught Us About Economics… and Markets On October 9, this year’s economics Nobel winner was announced: Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago.   Mostly, the advances made by economists who win the Nobel can seem a little abstruse, but Mr Thaler’s contribution is different.  To understand

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Is Internet Marketing Going Away?

Internet Marketing’s Growth Story Is Still Strong   Last week we commented on some of the social and political pressure that has recently been building against the giants of U.S. internet tech: primarily Amazon [NASDAQ:  AMZN], Facebook [NASDAQ:  FB], and Alphabet [NASDAQ:  GOOG].  Regulators are accusing them of using opaque financial

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Is E-Commerce an Employment Wrecking Ball?

Is E-Commerce an Employment Wrecking Ball?  Nope: It Creates More, Better-Paying Jobs and Boosts Productivity After strong stock-market performance in the year to date, several big U.S. tech firms have begun to receive some negative attention from the public, as well as from regulators and politicians.  Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG] and

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Which market could more than double before the bull is over?

Why Emerging Markets Could More Than Double Before the Bull Is Over Back in April, we drew attention to the ongoing rally in emerging markets that began early in 2016, corrected sharply at the time of the U.S. election last November, and then took off again as fears of a

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Is brick-and-mortar retail doomed?

Is Pure E-Commerce Really An Unstoppable Juggernaut?  Why the Future May Be Different Than You Expect The narrative of the total and relentless dominance of e-commerce over brick-and-mortar retail is beginning to break down. Above, we wrote about the big Chinese tech firms, and how they’re leveraging consumer data to

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Videogames:  A Theme That’s Just Beginning

We’ve written several times this year on themes related to videogames — trends we believe show that the 2017 outperformance of many domestic and foreign videogame companies are not a flash in the pan, but the beginning of a period of secular growth.  This week we’ll provide a brief summary

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The Bitcoin Fork

  Bitcoin’s wild gyrations have this year become even wilder, driven largely by an ongoing “civil war” within the commu-nity of coders and miners who make up the cryptocurrency’s ecosystem.   So what’s the nature of this civil war, what are the stakes, and what might the consequences be? On

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Is Bitcoin a Bubble?  Probably Not

Digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ether, and others have appreciated so much in 2017 that their interest and appeal are irresistible — not just to speculators, but increasingly to institutional investors.  Anyone who has not participated in the rally is faced with a conundrum.  At every step of the way,

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A Trade War With China? That’s Already Been Happening For Decades

A Trade War With China? That’s Already Been Happening For Decades   During last year’s U.S. presidential campaign, we began reading discus-sions about the possible effects of a trade war with China. Since the new administration took office, such dis-cussions have become ubiquitous. But even last year, we were left

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Business Spending and Consumer Spending Are Strong

Market Summary The U.S. Economy U.S. economic data for the second calendar quarter came out yesterday, and they were very strong. According to the latest revision, U.S. GDP grew by 3% in the quarter, and was far above the estimates of almost all economists. For the third quarter, the most

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When Investing, We Must Keep the Big Picture In Mind

The U.S. and many global stock markets have continued to move ahead. Even rising tensions on the Korean peninsula, and the theoretical prospect of nuclear war, were met by markets with a brief shrug — and this during a seasonal period when markets are often unsteady and experience corrections. As

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What You Need To Know About Bitcoin And Digital Currencies

What Are Digital Currencies — And What Do They Mean For Gold? Guild Investment Management June 22, 2017 Bitcoin is in the news, once again driven by a price spike that makes speculators and would-be speculators start counting their unhatched chickens.  This time, the granddaddy digital currency has competitors —

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What Kills Bull Markets?

When Investing, We Must Keep the Big Picture In Mind The U.S. and many global stock markets have continued to move ahead.  Even rising tensions on the Korean peninsula, and the theoretical prospect of nuclear war, were met by markets with a brief shrug — and this during a seasonal

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