Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Europe: Sometimes a Trade, But Hostility to Capital Undermines Longer-Term Outperformance
Cage Match: Earnings Outlook vs. Geopolitics
Geopolitics At the Fore As we write, the news coming across the wire is about an attack conducted by unknown actors which has killed more than a hundred Iranians gathered for a memorial at the grave of Qasem Soleimani — a prominent Iranian military leader who was himself killed in
2024 Year Ahead: A Global Summary (And Monty’s Personal Notes)
The discussion surrounding the economic outlook for 2024 is multifaceted, with various factors influencing the global and United States economies. We are maintaining a bullish stance for 2024, despite potential slowdowns in global growth, particularly in China. Alongside China, Russia and several global commodity producers might experience a deceleration from
The East’s Brightest Spots For 2024, Part One: Japan (and a Note on Korea)
Last week, we described briefly some longer-term economic and political dynamics that render China problematic as an investment destination for us. As we noted, while Chinese equities may sometimes make an attractive tactical trade for investors who are so inclined, we think that’s all they should be, and that the
China’s Economic Shift: Moving Away From Global Integration
We’re going to spend December looking ahead at 2024’s prospects. We have an optimistic outlook for many global markets: in coming weeks we’ll describe why we’re bullish on Japan and India in particular, as well as giving our outlook on the United States. But today we’ll start with perhaps the
Oil, Inflation, Bank Crises, and Gold
We wish our readers who are celebrating the holidays a joyful Easter and Passover (and in advance, we wish Eid Mubarak to those who will celebrate it later this month). OPEC+ (that is, OPEC plus Russia) made a surprise announcement of production cuts on Monday, bringing the cartel’s total cuts
Bull or Bear? Why It Can Make Sense To Be Bearish On The Market, But Bullish On Individual Companies
Read more on Guild’s Substack.
China’s Out of Sync… In A Good Way
But First: What’s That Up There, A Ceiling? Before we get to today’s main topic, a comment on the debt ceiling. It started innocently as a piece of World War I-era legislation intended to remove the threat of the Federal government running out of cash. But it was weaponized during
Monty’s 2023 Economic Overview, Part 2: Japan, Commodities, and General Market Outlook
Japan The Bank of Japan has surprised global investors by widening the band of interest rates for its benchmark 10-year bond — something that hadn’t been expected until next year’s departure of its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. The adjustment itself was slight, but it has outsized significance, because it suggests that
