Guild’s Basic Needs Index
2024 Year Ahead: A Global Summary (And Monty’s Personal Notes)
The discussion surrounding the economic outlook for 2024 is multifaceted, with various factors influencing the global and United States economies. We are maintaining a bullish stance for 2024, despite potential slowdowns in global growth, particularly in China. Alongside China, Russia and several global commodity producers might experience a deceleration from
The East’s Brightest Spots For 2024, Part One: Japan (and a Note on Korea)
Last week, we described briefly some longer-term economic and political dynamics that render China problematic as an investment destination for us. As we noted, while Chinese equities may sometimes make an attractive tactical trade for investors who are so inclined, we think that’s all they should be, and that the
China’s Economic Shift: Moving Away From Global Integration
We’re going to spend December looking ahead at 2024’s prospects. We have an optimistic outlook for many global markets: in coming weeks we’ll describe why we’re bullish on Japan and India in particular, as well as giving our outlook on the United States. But today we’ll start with perhaps the
Oil, Inflation, Bank Crises, and Gold
We wish our readers who are celebrating the holidays a joyful Easter and Passover (and in advance, we wish Eid Mubarak to those who will celebrate it later this month). OPEC+ (that is, OPEC plus Russia) made a surprise announcement of production cuts on Monday, bringing the cartel’s total cuts
Bull or Bear? Why It Can Make Sense To Be Bearish On The Market, But Bullish On Individual Companies
Read more on Guild’s Substack.
China’s Out of Sync… In A Good Way
But First: What’s That Up There, A Ceiling? Before we get to today’s main topic, a comment on the debt ceiling. It started innocently as a piece of World War I-era legislation intended to remove the threat of the Federal government running out of cash. But it was weaponized during
Monty’s 2023 Economic Overview, Part 2: Japan, Commodities, and General Market Outlook
Japan The Bank of Japan has surprised global investors by widening the band of interest rates for its benchmark 10-year bond — something that hadn’t been expected until next year’s departure of its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. The adjustment itself was slight, but it has outsized significance, because it suggests that
2023 Year Ahead: Monty’s Economic Overview and Outlook, Part 1
We believe the beginning of 2023 will likely bring a recession and more stock-market declines — perhaps beginning between now and the end of January. Since this recession will likely end in late 2023 or early 2024, and the market will discount the economic upturn by 6–12 months, we think
China: Trading Opportunity Emerging… Rest of World: Too Late To Be Bearish, Too Early To Be Bullish
China Recently, developments in China indicate an almost chaotic exit to the country’s “zero covid” policy, suggesting potential opportunities in Chinese equities — which are still highly under-owned by global investors. In our view, as a brief, counter-trend technical euphoria in U.S. markets fades, a recession continues to loom over
Markets This Week: Powell Tells Markets It’s Not His Plan To Break Them
A few significant events and data releases helped propel a relief rally yesterday. First, the release of Q3 GDP for the U.S., which was revised up to 2.9%. Second, JOLTS jobs data, which showed that the Fed’s tightening is having some impact on the labor market, but far from a
Wishing All Our American Readers A Happy Thanksgiving Holiday
As we enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and the usually quiet half-day of trading that follows on Friday, a few notes on current events of potential significance that we are watching. First, China. Due to China’s central role as an engine of global commodity demand, sentiment in world stock markets can
FTX Collapse Signals the End of Crypto’s Wild West
The ripples continue to spread from the collapse of what has now been revealed as an epochal fraud at FTX, formerly the world’s third-largest crypto exchange. The first blow came with revelations on the CoinDesk website, which had obtained a balance-sheet of FTX’s crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research, suggesting it
Markets This Week
More Evidence the Inflation Spike Is In the Rear View Mirror PPI (producer price inflation) data yesterday showed slowing inflation impulses, as we have discussed. Even our own index of basic essential needs (representing food, clothing, shelter, and energy components) reflect a sharp slow down in price increases from this
Markets This Week: Fed Messaging Leaves Market Guessing
The Fed “We still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” Jerome Powell, Nov 2 2022 By one significant measure, the Fed has succeeded. In the wake of the pandemic fiscal
Xi Jinping’s Grip On Power, the Future of China, and What It Means For the Rest of the World
Last weekend concluded the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at which a new slate of Chinese leaders were presented: the Politburo, and most significantly, the Politburo’s seven-member Standing Committee. As had been widely expected, President Xi Jinping broke with the precedent established by his predecessors which
