Guild’s Basic Needs Index
They Want to Be the Greatest World Power
China Has a Grand Strategy — They Want to Be the Greatest World Power China Has a Grand Strategy — They Want to Be the Greatest World Power Next week, the Chinese government will host 28 heads of state, as well as many senior government and NGO officials, at the
The Biggest Transformation of the Next Decade: Disrupting Global Transportation
The Biggest Transformation of the Next Decade: Disrupting Global Transportation Gridlock in Washington, whether real or apparent, has slowed the “Trump trade.” Market enthusiasm in the election’s wake focused on the beneficiaries of tax reform, regulatory relief, and infrastructure development, and with progress on those fronts in question, enthusiasm has
Emerging Markets Look Good: An Update
Emerging Markets Look Good: An Update We wrote last week on the potential for emerging markets to regain their mojo after years of relative underperformance. During the week, positive data have continued to come in. Some data points: South Koreans will go to the polls on May 9 in
Market Summary
Market Summary In the last few weeks, U.S. and world equity markets have exhibited the greatest period of weakness since January because of concerns that President Trump’s tax cuts and infrastructure spending will be delayed or abandoned — and at the same time, the arrival of fears due to
India Makes Progress Under Modi’s Steady Hand
India Makes Progress Under Modi’s Steady Hand Back in September, we gave readers a rundown of the big digital strategy of India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi — an effort which will be critical in the unleashing of Indian economic growth and India’s rise on the world economic stage in coming
Elon Musk On Our New Robot Overlords: If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em
Elon Musk On Our New Robot Overlords: If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Join ‘Em Elon Musk is a larger-than-life titan of industry — the modern equivalent of Gilded Age figures such as Carnegie, Vanderbilt, and Rockefeller. The style may have changed, but the essence is the same: bold innovators and
March 30, 2017
We See Opportunities Across the Atlantic Our basic view on the U.S. market remains positive. As we’ve written in recent letters, we believe that the post-election rally doesn’t just reflect the optimism of businesspeople and consumers about positive developments in U.S. tax and fiscal policy. Midway through last year, markets
March 23, 2017
What the Fed Means For Your Portfolio World markets are facing a major change, as interest rates have begun a multi-year uptrend. U.S. and foreign economic data continues to improve. On many fronts, including employment, capital spending, salary increases, backlogs of orders, housing demand, retail sales of home-related items, and
March 16, 2017
Is Your Portfolio Prepared For the New Market Environment? The change that is underway in U.S. markets is no run-of-the-mill, short-term shift. This is a sea-change — not business as usual. We’re referring to the end of a thirty-year period during which interest rates were falling — a thirty-year bull
March 09, 2017
The U.S. Growth Comeback Is In Its Early Innings Here’s why we’re bullish on U.S. economic growth for the rest of 2017, and probably longer. The Great Recession was not a standard textbook economic contraction, and the recovery has not been an ordinary recovery — neither in its structure, nor
March 02, 2017
Global Stocks Stocks are attractive in the U.S. and several other countries, driven by improvements in economic performance. Since the third quarter of 2016, U.S. corporate profits have begun to rise after a six-quarter stint of sideways earnings. Since the end of the first half of 2016, manufacturing PMIs have
February 23, 2017
Running On Empty: Crumbling U.S. Infrastructure Will Take Trillions To Fix, Creating Big Opportunities An unfolding crisis in northern California has brought unexpected attention to the infrastructure push that was one of the campaign planks of the new administration. The Oroville Dam is, in a sense, a crowning achievement of
February 16, 2017
Looking Back on 2017 Let’s take a step back and imagine that 2017 is almost over — and that we’re looking back from a standpoint in late December. What will we see has happened in the U.S. market during the remainder of 2017? First, we think we’ll be reviewing a
Febuary 09, 2017
Market Summary We are bullish on the U.S. but cautious in most other markets. At any time, a correction may begin in the U.S. market as political battles slow down the agenda of tax cuts and deregulation proposed by the new administration. As mentioned above, any failure to have tax
February 02, 2017
Trump’s Plans Are Not Mysterious… He’s Fulfilling Campaign Pledges The new administration’s whirlwind first days in office have led some observers to wonder what they’re up to. Regardless of what we think about the political or economic ramifications of new policies, it’s important for investors to orient themselves and have
January 26, 2017
Tailwinds Still Strong For U.S. Materials Industries Back in early 2016, when Donald Trump’s victory in a contentious Republican Party primary still looked unlikely, the global commodity complex reached the bottom of the decline that had begun in mid-2014. From that bottom, commodities rose unevenly through the rest of the
