Guild’s Basic Needs Index
January 19, 2017
The Markets In 2017: Inflation, Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Despite headlines declaring that the post-election rally is running out of steam as we head towards Inauguration Day, we continue to be optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. stock market for over the next several months. Later in the
January 12, 2017
How China Could Boost Commodities In mid-2014, China’s foreign exchange reserves peaked at nearly $4 trillion. Since then they have been declining as China defends its targeted exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, and increasingly against a trade-weighted basket of its trading partners’ currencies. Reserves now stand at slightly more
January 05, 2017
Our 2017 Outlook Is Optimistic: A Short Summary The Rise of Nationalism Has Changed the World Last year, rising nationalism sparked many global events, and is now an established global trend. We saw it especially in Europe. The European Union’s governing powers in Brussels have long promoted internationalism
December 29, 2016
New Opportunities are Opening Up, and New Risks Are Ahead: How You Can Change, Adapt, and Profit Over the Christmas weekend, instead of enjoying time with family at home, our Senior Analyst found himself making a quick round-trip from Los Angeles up to California’s snowy far north and back again.
December 22, 2016
Market Summary Over the next few months, we believe, the U.S. economy will grow, and certain industries are poised for more rapid growth in the immediate future. We see no U.S. economic recession on the near horizon, and without a recession, it is hard to see the U.S. market having
December 15, 2016
For the U.S. Economy to Grow, Productivity Must Rise — But The Obama administration aimed to increase U.S. labor productivity; and the incoming Trump administration has the same goal. Although the goal is the same, their prescriptions are different. Here is our list of industries to own and to avoid.
December 08, 2016
The Market’s Turn: Financials In the wake of President-Elect Trump’s unexpected victory, two of the sectors we favor are financials and industrials, and we’ll briefly discuss why. First, financials. Financials have enjoyed a strong rally in the month since the election. As of this writing, the Dow Jones U.S. Financials
December 01, 2016
Trump Taps a Turn-Around King The Secretary of Commerce acts “as the voice of U.S. business within the President’s Cabinet.” Trump’s pick for the post, Wilbur Ross, tells us something about the President-elect’s psychology. Mr. Ross has bought and restructured steel, coal, telecom, and textile firms during a forty-year career
November 23, 2016
Source: Bloomberg The post-election rally has now taken all four major U.S. indices — the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 — to new highs. The strongest rally has been in the Russell 2000, which consists of
November 17, 2016
Market Summary Here is a further summary of what we see to be the likely effects of Trump’s victory. Banks and Financials Banks and financials will be helped. The Dodd-Frank Act will not be entirely wiped out, but it will be moderated. As written, it is a one-size-fits-all
November 10, 2016
Cows on Wi-Fi Show the Future of Health Care We’ve written several times in the past about the coming integration of health sciences, the internet of things, and big data analytics – a noteworthy example is Alphabet’s [NASDAQ: GOOG] life sciences research lab, Verily Life Sciences. Verily is pursuing a
November 03, 2016
Market Summary Buy Volatility and Buy Gold If You Are a Long-Term Investor U.S. stocks are getting cheaper: is a short-term market bottom near? The key event this week was the strong rise of volatility and of gold after political surprises near the U.S. election: Wikileaks, FBI investigations, and tightening
October 27, 2016
Market Summary The key to global stock markets is the U.S. dollar and U.S. interest rates. We have all seen U.S. interest rates rise, and that is potentially difficult for developed and emerging markets. Developed markets will be impacted as yield instruments become more competitive compared to stocks. Emerging markets
October 20, 2016
Global economic growth is boringly slow, but it is still growth. Pessimists point out that the last few years have been the slowest economic recovery in seven decades, and that the average household in the U.S. has less income after inflation than in 2006. Optimists point out that positive change
October 13, 2016
Global e-Commerce Adoption Isn’t Slowing — It’s Accelerating, and Has Massive Tailwinds U.S. e-Commerce Share Gains (vs Retail) Source: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Most investors probably have the impression that e-commerce has moved beyond its initial stages of rapid growth and into a slower and more “mature” growth pattern. However,
