Guild’s Basic Needs Index
June 09, 2016
Time For Bargain-Hunting In Europe?On Sunday and Monday we heard about two new polls in the U.K. — both showing the “leave” vote pulling ahead of the “stay” vote in the contest to determine whether Britain will remain in the European Union. The momentum was visible also among the U.K.’s
June 03, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Bonds not risky? Think again. At the present juncture, equities are not the only risk assets. As we stand near the end of a 30-year credit cycle, bond yields are poised to rise. We don’t know how fast — that depends on many factors affecting the global
May 26, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Ordinary people aren’t very ordinary. Professor Deirdre McCloskey’s recent piece in The Wall Street Journal got us thinking about the roots of western prosperity — and suggested that current nervousness about populist movements around the globe may be missing the mark. Don’t be too alarmed by rising
May 19, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Market summary. The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends on the coming U.S. election. In our view, the election
May 13, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Critically important to your investments: popular revolts against corruption around the world. This trend will last for decades, and upset many of the patterns we think we know. Corruption and cronyism have existed throughout human history, and ordinary people have usually accepted them with stoic resignation. But
May 5, 2016
Biotech: Still An Innovation Engine Biotech had a tough second half of 2015, and a tough beginning to 2016; between July’s high last year, and the February 2016 low, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) registered a nearly 40 percent decline, with an uneven recovery thereafter.
April 28, 2016
Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next two to three years.” Since then we have continued to
April 21, 2016
Market Summary Market summary. The U.S. Dollar moving sideways remains a positive longer-term for U.S. stocks in beaten-down industries, gold, oil, and industrial company shares. We expect that the U.S. market will move upward, but at any time it may reverse and volatility may ensue for a few weeks or
April 15, 2016
The Fiduciary Standard Is Coming To Your Brokerage Since 1974, consumer protection for retirement savings products has been overseen not by financial regulators, as one might expect, but by the Department of Labor, under ERISA (the Employee Retirement Income Security Act). Major new changes to this law are about to
April 08, 2016
Market Summary Market summary. We are bullish on gold and some foreign markets, as well as stable growth companies in the U.S. We expect modest appreciation for the S&P 500 this year. We are avoiding Europe and Japan, and we are interested in gold and in some beaten-down markets such
April 01, 2016
When Too Much News Can Confuse 1. GDP grew by 2.4 percent in 2015 — ignore flawed data, including GDPNow. Fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth for the U.S. was just revised up to 1.4 percent annualized from an initial reading of 0.7 percent. That brings growth for the year as a
March 31, 2016
Monty was recently interviewed by Ben Bartenstein from Bloomberg. To read “The Investor Who’s Betting on Brazil’s Corruption Scandal”, please click the following link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/brazil-s-watergate-has-veteran-stock-picker-betting-on-big-rally
