Guild’s Basic Needs Index
December 31, 2015
Best of Breed in 2016 In the era of plentiful liquidity that accompanied QE and six-plus years of near-zero interest rates, the rising tide lifted many boats that really didn’t deserve to get lifted. U.S. markets are now slightly over-valued, and have a number of psychological and macroeconomic headwinds. We
December 24, 2015
This Year In Review And The Year Ahead 2015 was a year of divergences. Developed markets outperformed developing markets, services outperformed manufacturing, and commodity-related companies and economies underperforming everything else. Broader indices often served to conceal these divergences, with some software-related names, for example, far outpacing the performance of the
December 18, 2015
100 Million Times Faster? Quantum Computing Is In the House Last Tuesday, the Google Research Blog announced the publication of a new paper by Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Quantum AI team, reporting on the results of experiments run on the quantum computer system that GOOG operates jointly with NASA. That
December 11, 2015
Market Summary As we survey the investment horizon for 2016 the picture that we see is not highly attractive. Economic and Financial Fundamentals: Slightly Positive On a fundamental basis, the world is growing at a modest rate, and the return to a big deflationary trend in North America, Europe, or
December 04, 2015
Sunnis, Shi’ites, and Surprises After almost five years of civil war, the conflict in Syria has spilled over to Europe in the form of an ongoing refugee crisis, and now through the terrorist attacks in Paris — which, according to Islamic State claims, came as retaliation for French airstrikes. Now,
November 27, 2015
Tactical Views on the Year’s End and Beyond With just a little more than a month remaining to year’s end, we’re reflecting on the market’s performance thus far as we strategize the final push and begin to think about how to plan for 2016. Two themes stand out for us:
November 20, 2015
Real Estate: The Lay of the Land Stocks and real estate both suffered sharp declines during the Great Recession, and both have recovered in the more-than-six years since the downturn officially ended. Data Source: NCREIF, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, Bloomberg The graph above shows the relative performance of
November 13, 2015
Some good news for small banks. Financials are some of the first beneficiaries in investors’ minds as they contemplate the imminent end of the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy, but not all financials are created equal. We believe that the largest financial institutions will continue to face intense regulatory scrutiny and that
November 09, 2015
It May Not Be a “Sharing Economy,” But It’s Still Transformative We read recently about a new startup in the “sharing economy,” a French company called “BlaBlaCar” — an improvement on its original name that would make sense only to French speakers, “Covoitourage.” The shift is appropriate, since the ride-sharing
November 02, 2015
More Light in Dark PoolsDark pools are private trading venues, off the main exchanges, mostly run by large brokerage houses (although some are independent). On public exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange or the NASDAQ, bids and offers are public. In dark pools, however, details of bids and
October 23, 2015
The Case for GoldRecently we have been hearing from some of our old friends from the gold world. Except for the occasional trading position, we have not been positive on gold for about four years. Our attitude has recently changed. A few weeks ago, and last week as well, we
October 16, 2015
Market Summary The U.S. market is moving ahead — as long as the U.S. Dollar stays in a sideways or declining trend. We’re bullish on U.S. stocks, but very selective about which sectors to be involved in. In our view, a normal seasonal stock market rally should ensue now that
October 10, 2015
Creative Destruction: Is This Time Different? Many readers are probably familiar with the term “creative destruction.” It was coined by early 20th-century economist Joseph Schumpeter, who used it to describe how capitalism creates growth and technological progress by ruthlessly eliminating ideas, companies, and industries that no longer serve our best interests and no
October 09, 2015
What Is Going On With the U.S. and World Economy? There are times when things with which I am very familiar are reported in the financial media with 80% accuracy. And there are other times when things with which I am very familiar are reported in the financial media with 20%
September 25, 2015
Global Winners and Losers in the Oil Shakeout Oil analysts were mostly caught flat-footed by the price decline that began to unfold in June of last year, which has become one of six such drops of greater than 30 percent over the past three decades. Oil price forecasting techniques range from
September 21, 2015
Market Summary We believe that although a full or partial retest of recent lows may occur, the correction’s worst is over, and if the past is a guide, U.S. stocks will appreciate over the next six-month time-frame, volatility will be with us as the market retests its bottom and then
