Guild’s Basic Needs Index
May 05, 2015
Will The Dollar Resume Its Rally? We think so, but only after the dollar falls for a few more weeks. We believe that it will rally again later in 2015, on the basis of central bank policy — which is leading up to tightening in the U.S., but still in
April 28, 2015
Investors’ Burning Questions Last weekend GIM’s Chief Investment Officer, Monty Guild, gave a speech to investors about world markets. During the Q&A, it became obvious that investors had four central concerns: 1. “The U.S. market is high; how do we know when it is topping or has topped?” 2. “What
April 20, 2015
Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Stocks We are bullish on mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. The Shanghai stock market is going up, and there are several theories about why it is rising. Our favorite is that when the U.S. grows more slowly, money migrates to China. In our opinion,
April 13, 2015
The China Bull Rages China’s domestic stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen have put on strong rallies since the middle of 2014. Recently, the China rally shifted into high gear. We believe this outperformance is being driven by the desire of the Chinese government to draw domestic investors into stocks
April 07, 2015
Don’t Fight The Central Banks European QE is ongoing, and we believe it will have the same effect in Europe that it did in the U.S. — boosting stock prices. We think that dividend-paying exporters will do particularly well. Europe is not the only place where easing is still ongoing.
March 30, 2015
Investors are Concerned About Future Fed Behavior… Especially Interest Rate Increases We read carefully the comments by Fed vice-chairman Fischer — the eminent, wise, and experienced central banker. Mr. Fischer believes that U.S. rates will probably rise late in late 2015. Rates will rise at least partially due to the
March 23, 2015
The Kondratiev Wave: Today and in the Great Depression As regular readers know, we have for years talked about Nikolai Kondratiev and his theory of long waves in economic and social life — a theory with which we are in general agreement. Here’s a brief refresher on Kondratiev waves (also
March 13, 2015
Market Summary With Euro QE underway, the common currency is falling hard and fast, racking up two days of nearly 1.5 percent declines in the space of a week. Given the price of U.S. stocks, we are cautious on the U.S. market. We remain bullish on the U.S. Dollar, and
March 09, 2015
New Leaders Are Taking the Growth Baton National Growth Rates Are Shifting As we all know, for the last decade China has been the most impressive grower of the major nations. It is now the world’s second-largest economy. India has been a tolerable grower — but a huge underachiever given
March 2, 2015
Five Bull Markets Around the World — Thanks To Central Banks The U.S. — We’re BullishThe U.S. does not have a QE program at all now, but the U.S. stock and bond markets are getting support from the dovishness of the Fed minutes. In spite of much improved economic growth in
February 23, 2015
India and China: India Ascendant The Chinese market is cheap, but economic growth will continue to slow, since China has become too big to grow as rapidly as it did for the first two decades after its reforms. India may be poised to take the growth baton. To write about China and
February 16, 2015
The Currency War Is On — What Does It Mean For Your Portfolio? Many world currencies are being devalued, and it is the beginning of a potential currency war. This, more than any other current or historical event, gives us a direction for the future of investing and shows us
February 2, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Low inflation in the crosshairs of global central banks. From rate cuts in India, Canada, Singapore, and Peru, to the initiation of a large sovereign-bond purchase program in Europe, governments and central banks around the world are stepping up their fight against the anemic inflation — or
January 26, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Market fears? Unjustified. 2015 opened to a rocky start, with the S&P 500 falling seven out of the first ten days and down 4.5 percent from December’s highs. We deconstruct the market’s fears — of disorderly global currencies and commodity prices, and of inflation and recession lurking
January 19, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Investment themes for 2015. Low inflation, an improving employment picture, rising real disposable income, accelerating GDP growth, and a dovish Fed all continue to make a strong case for U.S. stocks in 2015. We favor companies with strong fundamentals in industries supported by macro trends — transportation,
January 12, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Short-term fears, long-term prospects. Once again, we see some short-term volatility led by various market fears: of a Greek departure from the Euro, of a collapse of European banks or even of the common currency itself; of a “collapse” in the price of oil; of financial stresses
