Guild’s Basic Needs Index
March 30, 2015
Investors are Concerned About Future Fed Behavior… Especially Interest Rate Increases We read carefully the comments by Fed vice-chairman Fischer — the eminent, wise, and experienced central banker. Mr. Fischer believes that U.S. rates will probably rise late in late 2015. Rates will rise at least partially due to the
March 23, 2015
The Kondratiev Wave: Today and in the Great Depression As regular readers know, we have for years talked about Nikolai Kondratiev and his theory of long waves in economic and social life — a theory with which we are in general agreement. Here’s a brief refresher on Kondratiev waves (also
March 13, 2015
Market Summary With Euro QE underway, the common currency is falling hard and fast, racking up two days of nearly 1.5 percent declines in the space of a week. Given the price of U.S. stocks, we are cautious on the U.S. market. We remain bullish on the U.S. Dollar, and
March 09, 2015
New Leaders Are Taking the Growth Baton National Growth Rates Are Shifting As we all know, for the last decade China has been the most impressive grower of the major nations. It is now the world’s second-largest economy. India has been a tolerable grower — but a huge underachiever given
March 2, 2015
Five Bull Markets Around the World — Thanks To Central Banks The U.S. — We’re BullishThe U.S. does not have a QE program at all now, but the U.S. stock and bond markets are getting support from the dovishness of the Fed minutes. In spite of much improved economic growth in
February 23, 2015
India and China: India Ascendant The Chinese market is cheap, but economic growth will continue to slow, since China has become too big to grow as rapidly as it did for the first two decades after its reforms. India may be poised to take the growth baton. To write about China and
February 16, 2015
The Currency War Is On — What Does It Mean For Your Portfolio? Many world currencies are being devalued, and it is the beginning of a potential currency war. This, more than any other current or historical event, gives us a direction for the future of investing and shows us
February 2, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Low inflation in the crosshairs of global central banks. From rate cuts in India, Canada, Singapore, and Peru, to the initiation of a large sovereign-bond purchase program in Europe, governments and central banks around the world are stepping up their fight against the anemic inflation — or
January 26, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Market fears? Unjustified. 2015 opened to a rocky start, with the S&P 500 falling seven out of the first ten days and down 4.5 percent from December’s highs. We deconstruct the market’s fears — of disorderly global currencies and commodity prices, and of inflation and recession lurking
January 19, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Investment themes for 2015. Low inflation, an improving employment picture, rising real disposable income, accelerating GDP growth, and a dovish Fed all continue to make a strong case for U.S. stocks in 2015. We favor companies with strong fundamentals in industries supported by macro trends — transportation,
January 12, 2015
Executive Summary 1. Short-term fears, long-term prospects. Once again, we see some short-term volatility led by various market fears: of a Greek departure from the Euro, of a collapse of European banks or even of the common currency itself; of a “collapse” in the price of oil; of financial stresses
January 05, 2015
Executive Summary 1. There are attractive investment opportunities in 2015, but we expect more volatility. As we’ve said over the past several weeks, we see good momentum in economic fundamentals supporting corporate profit growth and stock price appreciation in 2015, especially in the U.S., and potentially in some other global
November 06, 2014
Why the Stock Market Bears Have Been So Wrong Today’s negative and incorrect tone from world news commentators — including stock market commentators– is easy to understand. It is not hard to see the source of the media negativity. The negativity is due to the fact that negative news sells. The
October 23, 2014
The European Central Bank buys securities from banks. Under Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank has embarked on its boldest stimulus yet — expanding its balance sheet by purchasing various kinds of asset-backed securities from Eurozone banks. We applaud Draghi’s determination, and we are hopeful that governments in Europe will do more to
October 17, 2014
Falling Oil Oil continues its sharp decline, driven by seasonal factors, although a strong U.S. Dollar and global growth slowdown fears are also involved. Oil companies have been hurt, and the U.S. consumer is benefitting from cheaper gasoline. Although the strong Dollar may eventually hurt U.S. exports, we note that sharp oil price
October 02, 2014
Pay attention: the U.S. Dollar’s rise is critical for investors. The U.S. Dollar has broken out against other developed-market currencies. Although the Dollar may fall for a short period of time over the next few weeks, its longer term trend is higher. We believe that this rise is being permitted in order to
