Guild’s Basic Needs Index
July 24, 2014
Industrial Internet:Efficiency Gains Will Drive Adoption of the “Internet of Things” With a mind-set still shaped by the austerity of the Great Recession and its aftermath, companies are looking for the most cost-effective ways to deploy their cash. We believe that the development of the industrial internet, or the internet of things,
July 17, 2014
India — Modi’s Budget Is Growth-Oriented and As Expected The release last week of the first budget from India’s new administration was about what investors expected. The Indian stock market had already run up substantially this year in anticipation of a likely victory by business-friendly Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya
July 10, 2014
Market Summary Economics, U.S. and Global U.S. employment numbers are positive for the last few months, and U.S. industrial production is increasing as we have predicted in these pages. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.1 percent, and the U6 — often called the underemployment rate — has fallen to 12.1 percent.
July 03, 2014
Regulators are Forcing Banks to Get More Conservative Last Wednesday, Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo addressed the Fed’s symposium on stress test modelling. This is a now-annual gathering of Fed officials and financial industry participants, where the discussion focuses on the Fed’s efforts to evaluate the strength of banks in the face
June 26, 2014
Cash Influx Into Peripheral Europe Grows Again Foreign direct investment into the peripheral countries of the Eurozone was in retreat from 2007 on. Inflows are still low compared to pre-crisis levels, but there are signs that there is renewed appetite for opportunity in the economies hit worst by the global financial crisis
June 19, 2014
Asian Firms Preparing to Take the World Stage The development of Asian capitalism over the past several decades has been robust. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the proportion of world GDP generated by the advanced G7 economies peaked in 1988 at 69 percent. In that year, developing Asian
June 12, 2014
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Gets Support For Corporate Tax Cuts Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has struggled to maintain the momentum of the ambitious reforms he set in motion when his party came to power in December, 2012. Broadly, those reforms aimed to jolt Japan out of a decades-long period of
June 05, 2014
Big Data Comes to the Farm Although the prospect seems far-fetched, the second-oldest profession is on the cusp of a technological revolution. Farmers have faced a long transition over the past three centuries in which their ancient art has become more and more of a science. But the pace of that change
April 29, 2014
India — Growth Ahead: a Plan for Inclusiveness Under the New Prime Minister A New Day: the Congress Party’s Ineffectual and Corrupt Leadership Is Out For At Least Five Years The new Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is known for the economic growth that he brought
April 23, 2014
Standards Ease for Home LoansStill Tough For Homebuilders, But Looking Better for Suppliers Even though it was exotic financial instruments and an over-leveraged system that brought on the financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, the first shot fired was the collapse of the sub-prime lending market. Readers will remember the slack lending
April 16, 2014
U.S. Hegemony, Global Flashpoints, and Military Spending In February, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel delivered the Obama administration’s proposed 2015 defense budget. It was notable for the reduction of the U.S. Army to its lowest force level since World War II. It envisions “a military capable of defeating any adversary, but too small
April 10, 2014
Robotics: New Applications, Mass Technologies Robots have been a theme of science fiction for nearly a century, and a gleam in investors’ eyes for about half that time. As with many such secular themes, especially technological ones, public excitement and the vision of possibilities can outrun real options for investment. Promises of
April 03, 2014
China Eases — One More Step in the Dance Chinese premier Li Keqiang gave a speech to provincial officials last week which indicated that the arrival of some form of stimulus to the Chinese economy is imminent. We continue to hold our core China thesis, that a national financial crisis and
March 27, 2014
Cross-Currents Affecting the Markets We see many cross-currents that are currently, or soon will be, affecting U.S. and European markets and thepsychology of investors: Positives: 1. Money is leaving money market funds and moving into stocks in a big way. Interest rates have risen slightly, yet money market funds pay virtually
March 20, 2014
Bioprinting: Applications May Be Closer Than You ThinkIn previous issues of this letter we’ve commented on 3D printing developments. Companies such as 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD), Stratasys (NASD: SSYS), and ExOne (NASD: XONE) may be familiar to investors who have investigated this new technology. 3D printing, or “additive manufacturing,” is a way
March 13, 2014
Will We Get an April-to-October Market Correction in 2014? We anticipate that the U.S. and European markets will rally this year, and close 2014 with good gains. However, the crisis in Ukraine and fears (probably misplaced) about China melting down are creating a crisis of confidence in the European and emerging
