Guild’s Basic Needs Index
March 06, 2014
Regulatory Burden, Productivity Growth, and Jobs At the Davos meeting of the World Economic Forum, economists and market participants are surveyed, among other things, about the regulatory burdens faced in their countries. The results of this year’s survey, like those of the last few years, were not encouraging for the United States.
February 27, 2014
Two Key Themes That Are Not Widely Known —But Which Will Affect You and Your Life Substantially Key Theme #1: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is going to change healthcare delivery in the U.S. in many ways… thus far, our research indicates that most of these changes are bad for the
February 20, 2014
Internet Investment in China Attracts Scrutiny from Central Bank A tiny slice of China’s savings are beginning to flow into new online investment vehicles run by Chinese internet giants such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. Chinese regulators are now looking at the phenomenon — and so are China’s big commercial banks, who
February 13, 2014
A Note on Solar Energy Economics We recently read a piece of analysis on solar power generation that we thought was worth passing on to our readers. Even though the naïve and unreasonable pursuit of renewables can put a whole economy in the soup, as we noted above, governments are very likely
February 06, 2014
Coals to Newcastle, Gas to the Gulf U.S. Shale Continues to Reshape Global Energy Markets and Alliances Last year, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) awarded a contract for the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal. Yes, you read that correctly, as counter-intuitive as it may seem, the UAE
January 30, 2014
Investment Summary U.S. stock market earnings and growth prospects remain positive. The U.S. market is having a normal correction, and we will use this opportunity to spend some of the cash we have raised to buy stocks at a discount. The U.S. trailing P/E as of December 31, 2013 was about 16
January 23, 2014
Investment Summary The four emerging trends mentioned above are all significant parts of understanding the investment picture for 2014 and for the remainder of the decade. Trend #1: With large banks curtailing commodity trading businesses, there should be less risk of instability in commodity markets. The U.S. banking system could actually be
January 16, 2014
The “Internet of Things” for Consumers — Almost Here, or Still Too Soon? The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas is an annual Mecca for trend-seekers in tech. This year, one of the central themes of the show is one that we have touched on before in this letter —
January 09, 2014
The Bullish Case for 2014: Productivity Growth is the Key We are looking forward to 2014 with optimism, and we believe the key factor supporting the U.S. and global economies in the present phase of the economic cycle will be productivity growth. Our comments below were prompted by a similar analysis recently
January 02, 2014
Our Outlook for 2014 in Brief North America U.S.: As we have been saying, the economy in the U.S. will grow in 2014 by a surprising amount. Corporate spending is rising and employment will follow. We anticipate U.S. GDP growth real growth of 3.5 percent and inflation of 1.2 percent, for total
December 26, 2013
Investment Summary We remain bullish on U.S. stocks, and as we mention from time to time we remain bearish on the U.S. bond market. In our opinion, bonds have rolled over after a 30+ year bull market and we expect bond prices to continue to fall. Today, the differential between the U.S.
December 19, 2013
Private Infrastructure Investment Larry Summers didn’t get nominated to run the Fed, but he certainly still has the President’s ear. A piece of analysis we read recently pointed us towards an op ed article he wrote for the Financial Times in mid-October. That piece suggested two lines of thought which we
December 12, 2013
Small Banks Feel the Regulatory Squeeze Through our own contacts in community and regional banks, we have heard many accounts of the effect of post-crisis regulations on this sector of the U.S. economy. The chart below outlines the consolidation of the banking sector. Source: Investor’s Business Daily
December 5, 2013
Yieldcos: Spinoffs Seek Tax and Other Advantages for Renewable Projects Government support is providing powerful tailwinds for renewable energy projects. Despite some public relations problems, the Obama administration’s clear policies still favor renewables over any type of hydro-carbons — even domestically produced oil and gas. Until recently, investors wishing to invest
November 27, 2013
Japan: The Market Still Driven by the Yen and Monetary Policy Since last year’s elections that brought Shinzo Abe to power in Japan, analysts have been consistent in one message: ultimately, the success or failure of Abe’s attempt to bring Japan back from its long stagnation depends on his ability to enact
November 21, 2013
Janet Yellen As Fed Chair — What Does It Mean for Investors? Dr. Janet Yellen is a Keynesian and monetary dove. According to her writings, her speeches, and now her confirmation hearing, she believes that the U.S. economy is not operating at capacity, and that Federal Reserve activities can improve economic activity
