The Chinese growth slowdown that we’ve commented on in recent letters — which was underway well before the beginning of escalated trade tensions last year — will probably lead regional central banks to ease, or to remain steady rather than tightening monetary conditions in 2019. While China has done some Read more…
Turkey and Europe When strongmen hit a wall, it’s usually bad for their currencies. This has recently been proven in spades in Venezuela, as the endgame rolls on for the experiment of “Bolivarian socialism.” It’s also proving to be the case in Turkey, and that has many implications for Europe. Read more…
LIBOR is Dead — Long Live LIBOR! A week ago, we read an interesting piece in Bloomberg: “LIBOR Refuses To Die, Setting Up $370 Trillion Benchmark Battle.” Readers may be familiar with the LIBOR — the “London Interbank Offered Rate.” If you bear with the discussion that follows, we’ll explain why this Read more…
Executive Summary Recession outlook: an update. The U.S. market remains locked in a tug-of-war between rising interest rates and rising earnings. The market is about unchanged this year after a great deal of fluctuation. After several recent prominent earnings reports from major companies which had positive comments about continued growth, Read more…
Among many investors and analysts, there’s a growing sense that rising growth, inflation, and interest rates are bringing and end to the long “Goldilocks” phase of the bull market that began nine years ago this month. That doesn’t mean that stocks have no more gains to deliver — far from Read more…
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