The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (formally, the Government Pension Fund of Norway) was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum industry. With over $1 trillion in assets, heavily allocated towards equities, it currently owns about 1.3% of global stocks. The Fund has undergone a number Read more…
Europe Caves on Russia… Again True to form, the Council of Europe has fallen into appeasement of the illiberal regime that lies on the European Union’s eastern flank. Russia had been suspended from the continent’s human rights watchdog council in 2014 as a result of its annexation of Crimea in Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Markets In spite of slight deceleration from the GDP growth rate posted in 2018, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and we anticipate that as 2019 unfolds, growth will strengthen. U.S. markets have rapidly recovered from their fourth-quarter swoon, and while we believe that Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. Economy and Stock Market The U.S. economy continues to move ahead as do the U.S. stock market and U.S. corporate profits, which as we all know, lead the outlook for stocks. Most agree that the growth rate of the economy will slow in 2019, after the Read more…
The U.S. Market and Economy The U.S. economy is strong, although slowing from the very rapid growth of 2018. For 2019, we anticipate economic growth of 2.3% before inflation and 4.1% after inflation. U.S. stocks are in a volatile state with slow appreciation toward a rising market overall for 2019. Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S. Read more…
Where Brexit Stands, and Where It May Go From Here On October 4, we provided a brief summary of the Brexit negotiations — the talks between the UK and the European Union over how the UK will depart the EU, following a referendum of its citizens in 2016. Brexit fears Read more…
In June, 2016, voters in the UK delivered one of that year’s big political surprises. Against the predictions of pollsters and pundits, they voted, by a narrow margin, to leave the European Union (EU). It was one of a series of big surprises that humbled analysts around the world who Read more…
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy? The global landscape of economic growth is one of the “critical variables” that we watch as a barometer of recession risk. A year ago we reported that the world was enjoying a coordinated uptick in economic growth. (Our regular Read more…
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