market summary

As we write, major U.S. indices are just off recent all-time highs; for some, such as the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies, November was the best month in history.  Some evidence suggests that the outperformance of certain pandemic-crushed sectors and industries was not really a rotation from growth to Read more…

          The U.S. After a somewhat volatile August, U.S. stocks remain in the trading range where they have been for the past several months, as trade worries converge with recession fears.  After the much-watched inversion of the two- to ten-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, financial news was full of recession Read more…

The U.S. A correction is underway in U.S. stocks, as stock and bond markets price in trade war and recession risk and investors seek safe havens. We remind readers that part of the generally accepted bullish thesis at the beginning of the year was that a more accommodative Fed was Read more…

Market Summary           The U.S. The U.S. stock markets advanced rapidly in June, finally rising to new all-time highs.  With the S&P 500 at the top of its trend channel, and several technical signals suggesting that it is overbought, a near-term correction would be normal.  In our more active strategies, Read more…

Market Summary           The U.S. The S&P 500’s June rally has extended into July.  Although the U.S. market remains strong, it is also somewhat anxiously focused on the Federal Reserve and on trade developments.  We believe that the fundamental supports of the rally are still firmly in place.  The U.S. Read more…

          The U.S. With a truce in the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. stock market has risen to new all-time highs.  We’re now on the cusp of earnings season, which will begin in about two weeks.  U.S. and global data such as PMI reports have recently been signaling possible slowdowns in Read more…

Market Summary The U.S. economy is much stronger than some of the media’s pessimistic reports.  January was affected by weather and the after-effects of the government shutdown.  Since that time, U.S. economic growth has improved; we remain optimistic that the U.S. economy will grow by at least 2.4% in 2019.  Read more…

Market Summary Bullish news came Wednesday from the Federal Reserve, at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no further rate increases in 2019, and a single rate increase in 2020.  We noted in last week’s letter that many global central banks are currently supportive of stock markets, and that includes Read more…