Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
A volatile year to date seems to be resolving itself into a cautiously positive market backdrop, presenting the possibility of a better-than-usual summer for stocks. The underlying causes of volatility are still present — primarily the tug-of-war we have described several times, between rising interest rates (which are challenging for Read more…
Executive Summary Recession outlook: an update. The U.S. market remains locked in a tug-of-war between rising interest rates and rising earnings. The market is about unchanged this year after a great deal of fluctuation. After several recent prominent earnings reports from major companies which had positive comments about continued growth, Read more…
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