Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. market is still in a correction or sideways mode, with both macro news and fears in evidence, as well as seasonal effects. We are neither as pessimistic as some news media have become, nor are we extremely enthusiastic at the present juncture. We Read more
Market Summary The U.S.: Stocks, Gold, Cryptos Since we wrote last week, a trifecta of disappointing Fed communication, trade-war escalation, and self-reinforcing recession fears have accompanied an S&P 500 decline of about 4.7% as of this writing, and a strong rally in bonds (as interest rates decline) and gold. Read more
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more
For the first several years of the post-recession period, U.S. growth and value stocks tracked one another pretty closely. They began to diverge in 2014, and in 2017, that divergence accelerated rapidly. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP Does the recent faltering of tech tell us that a change may be coming Read more
Surveying the Risk Landscape: Our Philosophy At the end of every letter we write, we sign off by saying “We welcome your calls and questions.” Market turmoil and political events in 2018 have led to a number of questions from our readers and investment management clients. As we answer these Read more
After further trade-war saber-rattling, U.S. markets have again regained a semblance of calm. Further unexpected developments and accompanying volatility undoubtedly lie ahead, but thus far, markets have greeted the potential of escalating trade conflicts without panic. The financial, economic, and sentiment backdrop in the United States remains strong. Investor and Read more
We Say Yes. Last week, several major news outlets reported that detailed data harvested from Facebook [NASDAQ: FB] had been pressed into service by political consultancy firms under questionable circumstances. The data were harvested by researchers who were abiding by FB’s then-current policies when they collected them. But observers and Read more
Trade Wars and Media Fears It was a disappointing February. After a seemingly relentless and exuberant rally during January, the market stumbled in February and ultimately gave back most of its gains year-to-date, although at this writing it is slightly in the green. However, our big-picture analysis continues to suggest Read more
Leveraged Loans Are a Secret Sauce For Banks, U.S. Corporates, and Pension Funds Modern bull markets are fundamentally credit-driven. They are also credit-ended, when the spread between long-term and short-term rates goes negative and chokes off the supply of credit. This is why watching that spread — the “yield curve” Read more
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