The Longest Expansion The economic expansion that began in 2009 has now crossed the threshold and become the longest period of economic growth in U.S. history: Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Of course, this milestone has led to two responses: analysts and central bank economists reminding us that “expansions Read more…
Executives at two of the big U.S. railroad companies, CSX [NYSE: CSX] and Union Pacific [NYSE: UNP] report that growing shipment volumes lead them to feel optimistic about the growth of the U.S. economy. (CSX reported on January 16, and UNP on January 24.) Railroads are often considered a bellwether Read more…
The U.S. Market and Economy The U.S. economy is strong, although slowing from the very rapid growth of 2018. For 2019, we anticipate economic growth of 2.3% before inflation and 4.1% after inflation. U.S. stocks are in a volatile state with slow appreciation toward a rising market overall for 2019. Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more…
Market Summary We begin by wishing everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2019. The U.S. stock market just concluded the worst week near the Christmas holidays in many years, and some stock market participants have been panicking. Then the economic news arrived yesterday morning. Mastercard [NYSE: MA] announced that holiday Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S. Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Stock Market Fundamentally, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and recent data indicate that the trend will continue. Fundamental stock market indicators are bullish. Corporate profit growth is strong, exceeding 23% for the first six months. Strong corporate profits are positive and correlated with stock Read more…
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more…
Executive Summary For 46 years, Guild Investment Management has had one goal: to help investors succeed. We have historically focused on investing in stock, bond, currency, and gold markets in the U.S. and worldwide. In recent months, clients and readers have asked us to consider launching an investment partnership for Read more…
After further trade-war saber-rattling, U.S. markets have again regained a semblance of calm. Further unexpected developments and accompanying volatility undoubtedly lie ahead, but thus far, markets have greeted the potential of escalating trade conflicts without panic. The financial, economic, and sentiment backdrop in the United States remains strong. Investor and Read more…
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