Like everyone else, we have been closely following news and analysis of the disease dynamics that have been developing as states have gradually eased the “safer at home” provisions that were implemented in late March and early April. In this case, for investors, reality is ultimately more significant than public Read more
Near the height of pandemic lockdowns and workplace closures, on April 20, 52% of American workers were working from home, according to Morgan Stanley Research. But the work-from-home trend has been rising over the past two decades as internet connectivity, real estate costs, and the desire for better work-life balance Read more
Earnings calls will include a lot of information about the bounce back in business activity, which will vary greatly from industry to industry. We will be listening to many calls of interest in order to gain insight into these dynamics as closely to real-time as we can manage. November’s elections Read more
As we noted last week, some of the social and economic changes wrought by the covid pandemic will be enduring and not just transitory. Many companies well-positioned to benefit from these new or newly strengthened themes have seen their stocks outperform in the year so far, and although volatility certainly Read more
Robinhood Earlier this year, just before the pandemic broke, Bloomberg Businessweek featured a cover story about r/WallStreetBets, a bulletin board on the Reddit news aggregator populated by young traders with Gen Z attitudes — boasting ironically as much about their failures as their successes, churning out an endless stream of Read more
Since the pandemic broke, it’s been apparent to us — as it has to many other investors — that the virus would bring significant social and economic change in its wake. The post-covid world would be different from the pre-covid world, and those changes would benefit some sectors, industries, and Read more
Most of our thoughts about the overall market landscape are contained in this week’s headline piece. Obviously, the market is rewarding perceived beneficiaries of covid-related changes, and punishing companies that are believed to be challenged by them. This week we discussed some of the tech beneficiaries, especially in the e-commerce Read more
Two weeks ago, the worst single-day decline since March was blamed in part on emerging signs of a second wave of coronavirus illness in some reopening states, particularly Florida, Arizona, and Texas. That nervousness in turn raised fears that in some locations, authorities might need to re-institute lockdowns or tighten Read more
Two weeks ago, we briefly mentioned the worry some investors have that the Fed’s response to the coronacrisis could result in uncontrollable inflation, or even hyperinflation. At first blush, the expansion of M2 visible since the Fed’s crisis stimulus seems to justify the concern: However, while the broad money supply Read more
Time To Look To Cyclicals? Much of the heavy lifting in the markets’ breathless recovery from March’s lows has been performed by the mega-cap growth companies such as Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT], Facebook [NASDAQ: FB], Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL], Amazon [NASDAQ: AMZN], and Alphabet [NASDAQ: GOOG]. We believe that the overall Read more
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