Part of the emerging narrative about the long-term economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the business closures ordered in response to it suggests that it will lead to the ascendancy of the Big. The reasoning goes that big companies will be able to survive the downturn and will eat Read more…
The COVID crisis is first and foremost a healthcare crisis, although it is having deep economic effects. Predictably, in the market volatility caused by the pandemic, the healthcare sector has broadly outperformed; and within healthcare, biotechnology has performed even more strongly. Of course healthcare is a broad sector, comprising many Read more…
Parts of the United States and the rest of the world are tentatively moving towards re-opening their economies. Many unknowns remain about the path forward, including the timeline for developing treatments and producing vaccines, as well as many other issues. Those unknowns collectively are making it impossible for many companies Read more…
We’ve been concentrating on the fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus pandemic. The responses are similar to the playbook developed in the wake of the Great Recession, but in scope and size, they are unprecedented. Our coverage has been primarily of the response of U.S. authorities so far. This Read more…
Over the past several weeks, we have kept you informed about the monetary and fiscal stimulus being enacted in the United States in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dislocation associated with it. The nature and extent of the economic slowdown caused by measures to combat the virus Read more…
If you’re in lockdown, working from home, or otherwise practicing social distancing, we hope this letter at least offers the chance to think with us about the implications of current events for the economic, financial, and investing landscape. Perhaps it will even be able to briefly take your mind away Read more…
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, investors’ attention is focused in two directions. First, the progression of the pandemic itself as a public health phenomenon. We believe that before a sustainable stock-market recovery can take hold, global investors will need to see improving news on this front. There are Read more…
Note: Current events are very fast-moving. The following note was composed last week and sent to our clients and paid subscribers last Thursday. Our first thoughts for our clients, friends, and readers are for your health and resilience, both physical and psychological, as the current crisis unfolds. We trust and Read more…
Coronavirus panic and a huge shock to oil markets converged on Monday to hand U.S. investors their worst day since the Great Financial Crisis. There were a lot of market-related movements that registered in the stratosphere of the unexpected: the size of the market’s decline; the rapidity of moves in Read more…
For several weeks at the beginning of the year, we were expecting that the strong markets would experience a pullback; but what happened was that world stock and bond markets suddenly became unstable over the last 12 trading days. We began to prepare for a pullback in January, increasing cash Read more…
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