Accelerating GDP data (annualized quarter-over-quarter at 2.6%, with the real-time “GDP Now” estimate running over 3%) and cooling PCE inflation data (4.5%) in the U.S. that were just released suggest that some of the most bearish economic prognostications have had the wind taken out of their sails. Earnings season is Read more
With the S&P 500 bouncing off very long support at the 200-week moving average, the stage may be set for the bear market to get a breather. Inflation remains a clear problem, but as we have been telling you for some time, inflation will eventually begin to settle back from Read more
Investors with eyes riveted on upcoming CPI data have had to make a few glances across the Atlantic to the financial (and perhaps soon-to-be-political) trainwreck in the UK. The wreck has centered on UK pension funds that had leveraged themselves in order to meet actuarial targets rendered impossible by a Read more
We commented in a recent letter that a change in investor sentiment from “catastrophically bad” to “merely bad” could occasion a strong rally. It seems that the end of the third quarter saw sentiment decline to a recent nadir, and the stock market with it. (September is a notoriously difficult Read more
Fed Chair Powell tried to channel Paul Volcker at Jackson Hole. Insiders report that the market’s reaction to his July press conference was to assume that a pivot to easier policy was coming — so he scrapped his prepared remarks for Jackson Hole and instead delivered a short, blunt message Read more
First we reviewed the great bull/bear debate; then we gave a rundown of global stocks; last week we described our view of the positioning of the high-level asset classes. Today we’ll round out the high-level tour with some analysis of global currencies. Cash is of course one of the main Read more
After our review of the great bull/bear debate, and last week’s rundown of global stocks, we thought it would be useful this week to zoom out even further to the asset class level. We’ll briefly examine where various asset classes stand in the context of current global developments; what sort Read more
Our editor, Rudi von Abele, is taking a much-deserved week off. We apologize in advance that instead of polished, well written research analysis, this week you will get the musings of a portfolio manager. Do not despair, Rudi will return next week, and we will all be more intelligent for Read more
We’ve been planning for a few weeks to write a brief rundown of the case to be made on each side of the market, bull vs. bear. The market’s pullback from its recent high, though, which began on August 16, is strengthening the bears’ case. The remarks of Fed Chair Read more
All ears are waiting to hear what Fed Chair Powell has to say at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Much of the recent rally was predicated on a tacit assumption by market participants that Powell has hinted at a “pivot” in his remarks after July’s FOMC meeting. We don’t believe that a Read more
31225 La Baya Drive, Suite 214
Westlake Village, CA 91362
1 310 826-8600
Mon-Fri 6:30-4:30
