Both parties are fighting over how to slice the pie. But growth and technology decide its size, and Washington, as usual, is late. In our view, the most consequential contest on November 3 is fundamentally not between the two major U.S. political parties, but rather, between the ideologies inside each Read more
The most useful thing said about artificial intelligence this month came not from a lab unveiling a “smarter” model, but from the chief executive of Microsoft (MSFT) telling his customers to trust their models less. On October 10, Satya Nadella tweeted an argument that companies should treat advanced AI models Read more
Surprisingly, in a humanoid robot, the brain is the cheapest part. Artificial intelligence is what suddenly made human-shaped machines more than a comedy shtick or a Jetsons joke, yet by Bank of America’s estimate the computer that runs one, together with its cameras and sensors, will account for only about Read more
The midterms will fill the void between now and the start of earnings season, but they are not among the three things that at the moment, perhaps, are most influential in strengthening or hurting the attractiveness of stocks. We’d say those three things are the bond market, earnings, and oil Read more
On one point, the competing analysts of Wall Street agree: this is a banner year for corporate profits, with S&P 500 earnings on track to rise by roughly a third. On what comes next, they part ways. (Strategists tend to be moderate in their targets, so we wouldn’t expect anyone Read more
Nearly every economy on earth is growing, and American companies are earning far more than anyone expected in January. Analysts now see S&P 500 earnings per share rising 29% this year over last, up from about 13% when the year began. Stocks have not kept pace; the S&P 500 sits Read more
Xi Jinping arrives in Washington later this month; when the two presidents met in Beijing in May, Xi reached rhetorically for the “Thucydides Trap” — national security scholar Graham Allison’s framing of a rising power and an established one stumbling toward an unnecessary and accidental conflict. He may reach for Read more
As we wrote last week, the Treasury said on August 19 that it would at least double its buyback operations in the ten-to-thirty-year sector, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion apiece. Long yields fell on the news… and climbed straight back. Secretary Bessent called it a “Treasury Twist.” Read more
We were planning to write about rates already after watching them climb for months. On Tuesday, as we were wrapping up this piece, yields on thirty-year Treasuries touched 5.339 percent, their highest since 2007. Then on Wednesday morning, the Treasury Department for all intents and purposes said “Enough!” and announced Read more
First: Uranium The tightest areas in the uranium supply chain are downstream of the mine. Uranium itself (that is, processed ore) as we write, is at $86.90 per pound, roughly where it’s been since April. The two stages that come next — converting it into a gas, then “enriching” that Read more
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