The bullish consensus for 2021 has reached near unanimity, which is an invitation to anyone with a contrarian itch to scratch it. We agree with much of the bullish thesis. Historic excess liquidity, the control of the pandemic, fiscal support, reopening economies, and energized digitization all seem to be near-unarguable Read more
Trump’s Legacy It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies. But we can say that in spite of the polarization and vituperative rhetoric on both sides, the outgoing administration believed that it was in fact simply responding to longstanding economic and Read more
In recent letters, we’ve written about the investment opportunities we see emerging outside the United States. This week, we’ll describe two: Japan and South Korea. (Next week, we’ll follow up with Hong Kong and India). Japan The Nikkei index is recovering to highs not seen since the early 90s, signaling Read more
As we write, major U.S. indices are just off recent all-time highs; for some, such as the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization companies, November was the best month in history. Some evidence suggests that the outperformance of certain pandemic-crushed sectors and industries was not really a rotation from growth to Read more
With further analysis of trial data, Pfizer [NYSE: PFE] has joined Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA] in the 95% stratosphere of first-blush Covid vaccine efficacy. MRNA’s prospective vaccine, on the face of it, will be easier to roll out, since its storage requirements are not as onerous as those of PFE’s entry, Read more
Recently we sent out a special note to readers on the topic of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks last Thursday. We wrote: “For many, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks yesterday were lost in the overwhelming election-related noise. But some of Powell’s comments were extremely important for investors to note as they contemplate Read more
The stock market rally returned over the weekend as election results suggested the likelihood of a win for Presidential hopeful Joe Biden, the onset of a divided government, and the avoidance of prospective major tax increases. Stock markets seem to like gridlocked government. Fuel was added to the fire when Read more
We like industrial and travel recovery plays for the longer term. We remain bullish on the U.S., India, China, Japan, and Korea. We are watching Europe, but are not yet involved. Within all of these markets we continue to think good-quality tech companies can be bought on substantial corrections — which Read more
Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, participating in the bid-up of alternative assets as the market has anxiously anticipated the 2020 U.S. elections. It’s important to remember, though, that there is a fundamental difference between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and digital currencies such as the ones being developed by Read more
Given the volatility in the United States and the uncertainty of the election outcome, we remain bullish on certain sectors in the U.S. – the beneficiaries of accelerated digitization and virtualization. These winners are participants in the “durable themes” we identified in our recent conference call which we believe can Read more
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