Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more
Emerging Markets Beyond China: Reforms and Opportunities in India and Brazil Six weeks ago in these pages, we wrote that 2019 might be the year during which emerging markets finally begin to outperform. We argued that after a decade of emerging-market underpeformance, global investment flows would begin favoring EM assets Read more
Executive Summary 1. Deflationary tech is here to stay. In his May press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited what he believed were “transitory factors” that resulted in a low inflation print over the past 12 months. Although many economists and officials talk about inflation data as if they were Read more
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt. Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a Read more
The old saying is that stock markets must climb a wall of worry, and we have certainly seen that wall-climbing play out over the past several years. Every day, it seems, we can open the pages of the newspaper (or more likely, check our online news feed) and find headlines Read more
Healthcare: Buying Opportunity or Trap? Taking Stock of Past Lessons The strong recovery of the U.S. stock market in 2019 year to date has not treated all sectors equally (rallies rarely do). Healthcare has been a particularly noteworthy laggard in spite of fairly consistent earnings growth, having gone sideways while Read more
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