Executive Summary 1. Bonds not risky? Think again. At the present juncture, equities are not the only risk assets. As we stand near the end of a 30-year credit cycle, bond yields are poised to rise. We don’t know how fast — that depends on many factors affecting the global Read more
Executive Summary 1. Ordinary people aren’t very ordinary. Professor Deirdre McCloskey’s recent piece in The Wall Street Journal got us thinking about the roots of western prosperity — and suggested that current nervousness about populist movements around the globe may be missing the mark. Don’t be too alarmed by rising Read more
Executive Summary 1. Critically important to your investments: popular revolts against corruption around the world. This trend will last for decades, and upset many of the patterns we think we know. Corruption and cronyism have existed throughout human history, and ordinary people have usually accepted them with stoic resignation. But Read more
Biotech: Still An Innovation Engine Biotech had a tough second half of 2015, and a tough beginning to 2016; between July’s high last year, and the February 2016 low, the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) registered a nearly 40 percent decline, with an uneven recovery thereafter. Read more
Market Summary A year ago, in our letter of April 30, 2015, we noted: “While we do not see a crisis as imminent, we believe that a global debt liquidation is becoming a more obvious eventuality sometime in the next two to three years.” Since then we have continued to Read more
Market Summary Market summary. The U.S. Dollar moving sideways remains a positive longer-term for U.S. stocks in beaten-down industries, gold, oil, and industrial company shares. We expect that the U.S. market will move upward, but at any time it may reverse and volatility may ensue for a few weeks or Read more
The Fiduciary Standard Is Coming To Your Brokerage Since 1974, consumer protection for retirement savings products has been overseen not by financial regulators, as one might expect, but by the Department of Labor, under ERISA (the Employee Retirement Income Security Act). Major new changes to this law are about to Read more
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