Market Summary Some market sectors have become very good values. Others need to fall more in price to become attractive. Seeing the outsized declines in energy, technology, and other sectors has made us quite certain that some values have been attained in certain sectors. We are focused on technology, social Read more
Europe’s Banks Are Showing Cracks We’ve been expressing our worry about the health of the European banking system for years. Starting in 2012, many European banks relied on “CoCos” — contingent convertible bonds — in an attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Now, as market fear begins to price Read more
Market Summary World markets remain in a period of correction. Accordingly, we are cautious and awaiting lower prices before investing the large amount of cash in client accounts. Many now believe that the U.S. will go into a recession in 2016. We do not see that occurring; the U.S. Read more
Market Summary The U.S. is currently in a market correction. What should we do during this correction? Does the correction signal that a recession is in store for 2016? There is no doubt that the U.S. market has followed most other world markets into a correction phase. As of Read more
How Fast Will the Fed Raise Rates? The “dot plot” of the Federal Reserve shows how the opinions of various FOMC participants stack up, and is published after each meeting. December’s dot plot suggests that the majority is anticipating four rate increases in 2016, ending the year with the Fed Read more
China: Investor Confusion Leading to Volatility According to Jonathan Anderson of Emerging Advisors Group (EM Advisor Group), who is our favorite China economic analyst, his “base case” for China has shifted. Regular readers know that we have followed Mr. Anderson for many years, and that in our view he has Read more
2016 Outlook As regular readers know, we view the U.S. Dollar as the key to the outlook for stocks in 2016. (In the summary section above, we explain why a strong U.S. Dollar has gone from being a positive for the market in years past, to being a negative for Read more
Best of Breed in 2016 In the era of plentiful liquidity that accompanied QE and six-plus years of near-zero interest rates, the rising tide lifted many boats that really didn’t deserve to get lifted. U.S. markets are now slightly over-valued, and have a number of psychological and macroeconomic headwinds. We Read more
This Year In Review And The Year Ahead 2015 was a year of divergences. Developed markets outperformed developing markets, services outperformed manufacturing, and commodity-related companies and economies underperforming everything else. Broader indices often served to conceal these divergences, with some software-related names, for example, far outpacing the performance of the Read more
100 Million Times Faster? Quantum Computing Is In the House Last Tuesday, the Google Research Blog announced the publication of a new paper by Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Quantum AI team, reporting on the results of experiments run on the quantum computer system that GOOG operates jointly with NASA. That Read more
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