Bonds
Sometimes, Things Really Are Different: Why Bond Allocations Are Now Radioactive For Investors, and Why You Need To Think Differently About Stocks
As expected, the Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, with a 50 or 75-basis point hike on deck as well for July. Whatever the very temporary immediate response of the market, it focuses attention very clearly on the inflation and interest rate trajectory. For the majority of Read more…
Bonds
Inflation, Interest Rates, Currencies, and the Fed’s Blink
At the end of March, we noted about the dollar: “In [the context] of a very likely European recession, regardless of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, we would expect the U.S. dollar to stage a stronger rally, particularly against the euro. Why isn’t it? And perhaps a question equally Read more…
Bonds
Watch Those Curves
Until the pandemic broke last spring, all eyes were on the yield curve — the spread between short and long-term interest rates. The inversion of that curve is thought to augur the approaching end of a period of economic expansion. When long term (usually ten-year) rates drop below short term Read more…
Bitcoin
Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
Banks
Market Summary for the Week of February 22, 2019
Market Summary for Week of February 22, 2019 This week we are keeping it short. We remain bullish on the U.S., and on several foreign markets. The U.S. market is still a buy, in our opinion. Breakouts of the type we have recently seen offer opportunity for higher U.S. stock Read more…
Asia
Market Summary For the week ending February 15, 2019
The U.S. Economy and Markets In spite of slight deceleration from the GDP growth rate posted in 2018, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and we anticipate that as 2019 unfolds, growth will strengthen. U.S. markets have rapidly recovered from their fourth-quarter swoon, and while we believe that Read more…
Asia
What to watch for the week ending on January 11, 2019.
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more…
Asia
Market Summary for Week of December 17th, 2018
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S. Read more…
Asia
Market Summary for the Week of August 27th, 2018
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more…
