Last weekend concluded the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, at which a new slate of Chinese leaders were presented: the Politburo, and most significantly, the Politburo’s seven-member Standing Committee. As had been widely expected, President Xi Jinping broke with the precedent established by his predecessors which Read more
Does the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government matter? It certainly matters to many Afghani individuals who hitched themselves to the American star, and seem to have been unceremoniously abandoned in the chaotic rout that passed for an American withdrawal. It matters to the population of young urban Afghanis who Read more
In early June, Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing [DIDI] filed for a public stock offering on the New York Stock Exchange. To call DIDI “the Chinese Uber” [UBER] would be an understatement; in fact it might be more accurate to call Uber “the American Didi.” In the past 12 months, Read more
One lasting effect of the pandemic’s disruption of global supply chains has been a shortage of chips. This is not primarily a shortage of the advanced semiconductors which some industry leaders have increasingly favored because of their higher margins; rather, it’s the commoditized, workhorse chips that are now essential components Read more
Hong Kong had a rough 2020, hit by the pandemic, by escalating tensions between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China, and by ongoing resistance in Hong Kong to the effective early end of the “one country, two systems” policy that had once seen the PRC largely leave Hong Read more
Trump’s Legacy It could charitably be said that the outgoing U.S. administration was characterized by non traditional trade strategies. But we can say that in spite of the polarization and vituperative rhetoric on both sides, the outgoing administration believed that it was in fact simply responding to longstanding economic and Read more
Many forces are at work that could result in a correction for U.S. markets: uncertainty around the trajectory of the pandemic; the worrisome prospect of a contested presidential election; and typical seasonal weakness. And yet, as we write, the S&P 500 remains near an all-time high. Why? The investment backdrop Read more
The news is shifting. Covid-19 is still front and center, of course. As we noted last week, we think the pandemic’s development is not as alarming as many believe. With several months of data now available, it has become clearer that the virus’ risks are heavily skewed towards older individuals Read more
Global stock markets reacted to the ongoing COVID-19 scare with unusual volatility last week, with U.S. stocks shedding about $4 trillion in value over six bruising sessions. The decline marked the fastest 10% correction from the peak in S&P 500 history (during 1987, the peak was in August, months before Read more
U.S. and Global Stocks We don’t believe that last week’s declines represented a rational response to neutral analysis of the risks posed by COVID-19. The data we have so far lead us to believe that those risks are relatively modest — that COVID-19 will not be a global black swan, Read more
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