Chinese Banks: No Danger Now, But Watch Carefully On the fringes of the Chinese financial system, signs of stress continue to appear, so far restricted to some small banks and trust companies. The central government is continuing its efforts to unwind the excesses that built up after 2009, when it Read more
1. Hong Kong in the crosshairs of the trade war. Hong Kong is experiencing massive protests against the Chinese government’s erosions of the city’s traditional liberties and democratic governance. These protests have occasioned the introduction of a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress that would strip the city of its Read more
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more
Emerging Markets Beyond China: Reforms and Opportunities in India and Brazil Six weeks ago in these pages, we wrote that 2019 might be the year during which emerging markets finally begin to outperform. We argued that after a decade of emerging-market underpeformance, global investment flows would begin favoring EM assets Read more
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt. Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a Read more
That Keeps Us Bullish: Central Banks Are In Easing Mode, Emerging Markets Still Looking Good Last week, we wrote that we see the possibility that finally, after years of underperformance, the stars might be beginning to align for emerging markets in 2019. Overarchingly, here’s what emerging markets need to see Read more
In the period since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. stock market has moved ahead — while emerging-market stocks have spent almost a decade basically treading water. Emerging Markets Have Underperformed the U.S. In the Post-Crisis Period Source: Bloomberg LLP For a time, beginning partway through 2016, the Read more
Huawei’s Undersea Ventures and Global Internet Security Many intelligence analysts and agencies around the world are concerned that Chinese tech giant Huawei, as it sells hardware, software, and services around the globe, is working hand-in-glove with the Chinese government to further its geopolitical ambitions. These concerns are not limited to Read more
After the closing session of the National People’s Congress, Chinese second-in-command Li Keqiang addressed various measures that the Chinese government has taken to spur economic growth, and suggested more to come in the future. Source: Xinhua Li noted cuts to value-added taxes (slated to take effect on April 1), cuts Read more
As our regular readers know, we like to point out that the Chinese stock market’s performance is much more closely related to retail investor sentiment than are other major world markets. This is because the Chinese domestic stock market (“A sharesâ€) is relatively small compared to the Chinese economy, relatively Read more
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