At the end of March, we noted about the dollar: “In [the context] of a very likely European recession, regardless of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, we would expect the U.S. dollar to stage a stronger rally, particularly against the euro. Why isn’t it? And perhaps a question equally Read more…
The Biden administration has engaged substantively on digital asset regulation. It is preparing an executive order, after input from various agencies, including the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which will set the stage for the development of a comprehensive digital asset strategy document later this year. The executive order will likely Read more…
The post-pandemic bull market is now getting choppy as it encounters a number of real-world headwinds — the reduction of monetary stimulus, growing conflicts over further fiscal stimulus, slowing liquidity growth, official acknowledgment of persistent inflation, and the growing concern of market participants that a Fed “policy mistake” is unfolding. Read more…
On October 16, 1971, after years of investing for himself and working as an analyst at a hedge fund and in bank management, our founder, Monty Guild, established his own private investment portfolio management practice. That practice continues today as Guild Investment Management, Inc. For 50 years, Monty, and all Read more…
If you are a market participant who can’t shake the feeling that you have lost your touch for anticipating market behavior, you are not alone. We have taken to simply reminding investors that corrections can come at any time, which has always been true but has never been more important Read more…
Last week, the European Central Bank joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in moving toward a policy regime that’s more tolerant of inflation. Rather than a 2% ceiling, the ECB will now target an average rate of 2%, tolerating overshoots to compensate for periods of lower inflation. (The Fed’s move to Read more…
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have reclaimed the imagination of the investing public, especially as crypto has enjoyed another of its periodic spectacular runs since late last year. Belatedly, mainstream analysts are beginning to note what we told a crowd at the Las Vegas MoneyShow three years ago — digital Read more…
Two weeks ago, we briefly mentioned the worry some investors have that the Fed’s response to the coronacrisis could result in uncontrollable inflation, or even hyperinflation. At first blush, the expansion of M2 visible since the Fed’s crisis stimulus seems to justify the concern: However, while the broad money supply Read more…
Since March, unprecedented monetary and fiscal support for the U.S. economy has rolled out in waves from the Federal Reserve and from the U.S. government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s determination to do “whatever it takes” to ensure the stability of the U.S. financial system, and to avert a financial crisis, Read more…
U.S. and Global Stocks “Fear? What fear?” U.S. markets have brushed off coronavirus fears and continue to move to new highs. The available data from China and elsewhere suggest that although Covid-19 (the virus’ new official designation) is more worrisome than SARS and MERS, and could yet be disruptive, it Read more…
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