Bonds
Inflation, Interest Rates, Currencies, and the Fed’s Blink
At the end of March, we noted about the dollar: “In [the context] of a very likely European recession, regardless of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, we would expect the U.S. dollar to stage a stronger rally, particularly against the euro. Why isn’t it? And perhaps a question equally Read more…
Cryptocurrencies
Stablecoins May Not Excite, But They Matter — A Lot
The Biden administration has engaged substantively on digital asset regulation. It is preparing an executive order, after input from various agencies, including the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which will set the stage for the development of a comprehensive digital asset strategy document later this year. The executive order will likely Read more…
Bitcoin
The Coming Crypto War
The post-pandemic bull market is now getting choppy as it encounters a number of real-world headwinds — the reduction of monetary stimulus, growing conflicts over further fiscal stimulus, slowing liquidity growth, official acknowledgment of persistent inflation, and the growing concern of market participants that a Fed “policy mistake” is unfolding. Read more…
Dollar
Happy 50th Birthday, Guild Investment Management!
On October 16, 1971, after years of investing for himself and working as an analyst at a hedge fund and in bank management, our founder, Monty Guild, established his own private investment portfolio management practice. That practice continues today as Guild Investment Management, Inc. For 50 years, Monty, and all Read more…
Dollar
Why Your Market Instincts May Be Wrong
If you are a market participant who can’t shake the feeling that you have lost your touch for anticipating market behavior, you are not alone. We have taken to simply reminding investors that corrections can come at any time, which has always been true but has never been more important Read more…
Dollar
For Central Bankers, Inflation Isn’t a Worry — It’s Their Fondest Wish
Last week, the European Central Bank joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in moving toward a policy regime that’s more tolerant of inflation. Rather than a 2% ceiling, the ECB will now target an average rate of 2%, tolerating overshoots to compensate for periods of lower inflation. (The Fed’s move to Read more…
Bitcoin
When the Fed Creates Its Own Bitcoin: The Disruptive Potential of Central Bank Digital Currencies
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general have reclaimed the imagination of the investing public, especially as crypto has enjoyed another of its periodic spectacular runs since late last year. Belatedly, mainstream analysts are beginning to note what we told a crowd at the Las Vegas MoneyShow three years ago — digital Read more…
Dollar
Why We’re Not Worried About Inflation… Yet
Two weeks ago, we briefly mentioned the worry some investors have that the Fed’s response to the coronacrisis could result in uncontrollable inflation, or even hyperinflation. At first blush, the expansion of M2 visible since the Fed’s crisis stimulus seems to justify the concern: However, while the broad money supply Read more…
Dollar
The Fed Can’t Stop Foreigners’ Addiction to Dollars
Since March, unprecedented monetary and fiscal support for the U.S. economy has rolled out in waves from the Federal Reserve and from the U.S. government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s determination to do “whatever it takes” to ensure the stability of the U.S. financial system, and to avert a financial crisis, Read more…
