Emerging Markets
Summer Travel Over… Here Comes September
Our editor, Rudi von Abele, is taking a much-deserved week off. We apologize in advance that instead of polished, well written research analysis, this week you will get the musings of a portfolio manager. Do not despair, Rudi will return next week, and we will all be more intelligent for Read more…
Emerging Markets
How Rising Rates Are Hurting the Emerging Markets Rebound
Reading time: 3 minutes Emerging markets, like the rest of global stock markets, have enjoyed a torrid rise since the pandemic bottom just over a year ago. That rise was reinvigorated in late October and early November as word filtered into markets that covid vaccines had proven effective in accelerated Read more…
Emerging Markets
We Believe That This Is the Beginning of a Sea Change In Inflation — And Here’s What You Should Do
Back in late August, the Federal Reserve announced a new policy framework. It pledged to target an average inflation rate of 2%, letting it run above 2% for potentially prolonged periods; and it said that it would not respond to an improving employment picture with pre-emptive rate increases. Around the Read more…
COVID-19
Growth, Growth Everywhere (Especially As Measured In Fiat Currency Units)
With further analysis of trial data, Pfizer [NYSE: PFE] has joined Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA] in the 95% stratosphere of first-blush Covid vaccine efficacy. MRNA’s prospective vaccine, on the face of it, will be easier to roll out, since its storage requirements are not as onerous as those of PFE’s entry, Read more…
Bitcoin
Market Summary
The U.S. Earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing. While earnings growth has stalled after the tax-break driven pace of growth that was enjoyed in 2018, it remains broadly within the trend of growth that has followed the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Source: Bloomberg, LLP Of course, there Read more…
Bitcoin
THE NEW ROBOT OVERLORDS
1. Hong Kong in the crosshairs of the trade war. Hong Kong is experiencing massive protests against the Chinese government’s erosions of the city’s traditional liberties and democratic governance. These protests have occasioned the introduction of a bipartisan bill in the U.S. Congress that would strip the city of its Read more…
Bitcoin
Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
China
We are bullish on emerging markets, which are looking up.
That Keeps Us Bullish: Central Banks Are In Easing Mode, Emerging Markets Still Looking Good Last week, we wrote that we see the possibility that finally, after years of underperformance, the stars might be beginning to align for emerging markets in 2019. Overarchingly, here’s what emerging markets need to see Read more…
China
Green Shoots in Emerging Markets Means Opportunities For U.S. Investors
In the period since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. stock market has moved ahead — while emerging-market stocks have spent almost a decade basically treading water. Emerging Markets Have Underperformed the U.S. In the Post-Crisis Period Source: Bloomberg LLP For a time, beginning partway through 2016, the Read more…
