Since the February correction, the U.S. stock market in 2018 has struggled under two major psychological clouds: the risks posed by global trade conflicts, especially the trade relationship between the U.S. and China; and the end of the post-crisis era of ultra-low interest rates. Escalating trade conflicts caused analysts to Read more
Emerging Markets and Europe: When Will It Be Time To Buy? The global landscape of economic growth is one of the “critical variables” that we watch as a barometer of recession risk. A year ago we reported that the world was enjoying a coordinated uptick in economic growth. (Our regular Read more
Market Summary The U.S. Market and Economy As we have been mentioning frequently in these pages, we continue to have a bullish view of the U.S. economy. More positive economic data surface each week. This week we learned that small business optimism in the U.S. is at the highest level Read more
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more
Where Are the Worst EM Troubles? Emerging-market stocks, for U.S. investors, have not been treated kindly by trade-war saber rattling during 2018 — as of this writing, down more than 17% from their late-January highs. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP Until trade conflicts took center stage, though, emerging markets performed well Read more
Drama has unfolded in emerging markets, starting last week as the Trump administration stiffened tariffs against Turkish steel and aluminum, exacerbating the Turkish lira’s sharp decline. Stock markets soured globally as investors tried to determine whether Turkey’s problems were relatively isolated, or if there could be wider ramifications. European financials Read more
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more
India Economics: Steaming Ahead The Indian stock market has seen a strong year, continuing the rise from the bottom at the end of 2016. Source: Bloomberg Finance LLP When expressed in U.S. dollars, however, the chart takes on a different hue. U.S. dollar strength has meant that in U.S. dollar Read more
If an impending trade war is about to create havoc for emerging markets, someone forgot to tell investors. Emerging-market equity inflows have continued apace since the specter of a trade war emerged at the beginning of March. (Dollar-denominated emerging-market debt moved to modest outflows, moving similarly to U.S. investment-grade corporate Read more
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