We say it often and we will say it again: earnings are the mother’s milk of stock prices. On a market-wide basis, a flat or declining earnings trend almost invariably accompanies a flat or declining trend in stock prices. This doesn’t mean that investors should go completely to cash (particularly Read more…
Many thanks to those who joined us on our periodic conference call on March 24. We will be editing the call into bite-sized thematic sections and providing the links to you in coming days, to watch or rewatch. If you would like a copy of the slide deck that accompanied Read more…
In recent weeks, a piece of news and a piece of commentary, which we show you below, crossed our desk — items which were interesting enough taken in isolation, but which became even more interesting when taken together. Source: Wall Street Journal, Barrons The first was a report about the Read more…
Does the collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government matter? It certainly matters to many Afghani individuals who hitched themselves to the American star, and seem to have been unceremoniously abandoned in the chaotic rout that passed for an American withdrawal. It matters to the population of young urban Afghanis who Read more…
Last week, the European Central Bank joined the U.S. Federal Reserve in moving toward a policy regime that’s more tolerant of inflation. Rather than a 2% ceiling, the ECB will now target an average rate of 2%, tolerating overshoots to compensate for periods of lower inflation. (The Fed’s move to Read more…
The Fed’s press conferences in the era of “money printer go brrrrrr” are often derided as “nothingburgers,” but of course they are still required listening and contain important information. Nothing in Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday press conference was surprising to us, but it served to underscore our convictions about (1) Read more…
We note that interest rates are now above where they were when the pandemic began; the economy is sitting on many trillions of newly-created dollars; and analysts are vying for more aggressive 2020 GDP growth targets. Even the Federal Reserve is raising its growth targets, and while the majority of Read more…
Our first note of 2021 made the case that the events of 2020 heralded the return of inflation. We made two main observations. First, the Fed’s adoption of average inflation targeting, which would give the central bank cover to tolerate persistent inflation above the 2% to make up for the Read more…
Back in late August, the Federal Reserve announced a new policy framework. It pledged to target an average inflation rate of 2%, letting it run above 2% for potentially prolonged periods; and it said that it would not respond to an improving employment picture with pre-emptive rate increases. Around the Read more…
Bitcoin has been on a tear lately, participating in the bid-up of alternative assets as the market has anxiously anticipated the 2020 U.S. elections. It’s important to remember, though, that there is a fundamental difference between cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, and digital currencies such as the ones being developed by Read more…
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