As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, investors’ attention is focused in two directions. First, the progression of the pandemic itself as a public health phenomenon. We believe that before a sustainable stock-market recovery can take hold, global investors will need to see improving news on this front. There are Read more
Last September, after the crisis in the overnight repo markets, we wrote: “The recent funding stresses that drove U.S. overnight repo rates to spike point out actions that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to take over the coming year to ensure liquidity. Accounting for organic growth in liquidity needs, Read more
We mentioned in last week’s Market Summary that we saw heightened terrorism risks in 2020, and right on cue, the next day the U.S. assassinated the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Iran responded with missile strikes against U.S. facilities in Iraq. The risk of regional destabilization was, briefly, on everyone’s Read more
Markets in 2019 truly climbed a wall of worry, recovering from the late 2018 swoon and rising to new highs even in the midst of a host of political, geopolitical, financial, and economic concerns. Some of those worries have been resolved, some have been put to one side, others are Read more
The U.S. As expected, the Federal Reserve made no change to its policy at its Wednesday announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear in the Fed’s accommodative stance. With the level of inflation that would be required to trigger a Fed rate increase nowhere to be found and unlikely Read more
Paul Volcker, the venerable former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is credited with slaying the dragon of 70s stagflation during his tenure as U.S. central bank chief. Long afterwards, he was still pushing for sound monetary policy and financial regulations through his think-tank, the Volcker Alliance. He died Sunday at Read more
Perceived recession risks continue to tick down, after reaching a flurry over the summer. Morgan Stanley’s recession risk model continues to register lows for the year. Source: Morgan Stanley Research They comment: “Parts of the economy are responding well to the sharp drop in interest rates since January, an indication Read more
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