Two weeks ago, the worst single-day decline since March was blamed in part on emerging signs of a second wave of coronavirus illness in some reopening states, particularly Florida, Arizona, and Texas. That nervousness in turn raised fears that in some locations, authorities might need to re-institute lockdowns or tighten Read more…
Two weeks ago, we briefly mentioned the worry some investors have that the Fed’s response to the coronacrisis could result in uncontrollable inflation, or even hyperinflation. At first blush, the expansion of M2 visible since the Fed’s crisis stimulus seems to justify the concern: However, while the broad money supply Read more…
Even as the recovery of stock markets from the March and April decline continues and broadens, investors’ attention remains focused on Federal Reserve policy. As we described last week, Fed policy has been instrumental in preserving financial stability, not only in the U.S., but globally. With the initial crisis past, Read more…
Since March, unprecedented monetary and fiscal support for the U.S. economy has rolled out in waves from the Federal Reserve and from the U.S. government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s determination to do “whatever it takes” to ensure the stability of the U.S. financial system, and to avert a financial crisis, Read more…
We’ve been concentrating on the fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus pandemic. The responses are similar to the playbook developed in the wake of the Great Recession, but in scope and size, they are unprecedented. Our coverage has been primarily of the response of U.S. authorities so far. This Read more…
Over the past several weeks, we have kept you informed about the monetary and fiscal stimulus being enacted in the United States in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dislocation associated with it. The nature and extent of the economic slowdown caused by measures to combat the virus Read more…
If you’re in lockdown, working from home, or otherwise practicing social distancing, we hope this letter at least offers the chance to think with us about the implications of current events for the economic, financial, and investing landscape. Perhaps it will even be able to briefly take your mind away Read more…
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, investors’ attention is focused in two directions. First, the progression of the pandemic itself as a public health phenomenon. We believe that before a sustainable stock-market recovery can take hold, global investors will need to see improving news on this front. There are Read more…
Last September, after the crisis in the overnight repo markets, we wrote: “The recent funding stresses that drove U.S. overnight repo rates to spike point out actions that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to take over the coming year to ensure liquidity. Accounting for organic growth in liquidity needs, Read more…
We mentioned in last week’s Market Summary that we saw heightened terrorism risks in 2020, and right on cue, the next day the U.S. assassinated the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Iran responded with missile strikes against U.S. facilities in Iraq. The risk of regional destabilization was, briefly, on everyone’s Read more…
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