Last week, in our Market Summary, we commented: “A correction could come in one of two forms — either a boring, sideways grind lasting several months, or a sharp decline of 4–8%, coincident with some appropriate externality, followed by a renewed uptrend. The recent outbreak of a SARS-like coronavirus in Read more…
Market Summary The U.S. Outside the view of most individual investors, a “quant quake” erupted as concentrated hedge-fund bets in momentum growth stocks were challenged by a sudden swing towards value stocks and cyclicals. The indexes were placid, but many observers wondered if this might presage an imminent end Read more…
On August 5, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that its governing board had voted four to one to back the creation of a real-time, round-the-clock payment and settlement service, to be called FedNow. The goal of this service would be to set up an infrastructure to allow payments between banks Read more…
Market summary. The U.S. stock market continues its rally, with greater prospects for a friendly Federal Reserve, and relief over the settlement of possible trade troubles with Mexico – at least for now. The amelioration of these overhangs and pessimism causes us to continue to be bullish on U.S. stocks, Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade wars, geopolitics, and the fate of the yuan. Beneath the trade-war back-and-forth is a stark reality: the era of Chinas massive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is ending, and in coming years, Chinas currency is likely headed for a significant decline. Saber rattling goes on as Read more…
Executive Summary 1. The Trump administration deepens its drive for transparent healthcare pricing. In February, the Trump administration asked for comments on a proposed rule with potentially vast effects on the entire U.S. healthcare sector. A rule that came into effect in January already required hospitals to make their list Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Markets In spite of slight deceleration from the GDP growth rate posted in 2018, the U.S. economy continues to be strong, and we anticipate that as 2019 unfolds, growth will strengthen. U.S. markets have rapidly recovered from their fourth-quarter swoon, and while we believe that Read more…
U.S. and World Outlook As we noted last week, the U.S. economy is still strong; the market fears that accompanied the sharp late-2018 correction are beginning to dissipate slightly, and investors are showing themselves willing to hunt for bargains. Some stocks have obviously reset to more attractive price levels; we Read more…
Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more…
The U.S. Economy and Market Why has the U.S. market had such a hard time while the U.S. economy and U.S. corporate profits are so strong? There are many ideas, but we believe the main causes of a weak U.S. market have been three: Trade fears; Fears that the U.S. Read more…
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