Gold
Oil, Inflation, Bank Crises, and Gold
We wish our readers who are celebrating the holidays a joyful Easter and Passover (and in advance, we wish Eid Mubarak to those who will celebrate it later this month). OPEC+ (that is, OPEC plus Russia) made a surprise announcement of production cuts on Monday, bringing the cartel’s total cuts Read more…
Energy
Got Nickel? Asking For A Friend
There are years when nothing happens and years in which centuries happen. Carlos Fuentes We’ve seen a whirlwind of events in the past week. Here are some thoughts on the most important themes. Ukraine and the Fed Unfolding events in Ukraine of course represent a humanitarian catastrophe — and we Read more…
Dollar
Happy 50th Birthday, Guild Investment Management!
On October 16, 1971, after years of investing for himself and working as an analyst at a hedge fund and in bank management, our founder, Monty Guild, established his own private investment portfolio management practice. That practice continues today as Guild Investment Management, Inc. For 50 years, Monty, and all Read more…
Gold
Inflation, Interest Rates, & Gold, Oh My!
April inflation data came in hot, as we’ve been predicting for months. By bringing you our Guild Basic Needs Index, we have been preparing you for some of the eye-popping numbers you will see. Year-over-year, lapping last year’s first full month of pandemic lockdowns, prices rose 4.2%. But month-over-month, overall Read more…
Bitcoin
Inflation Is Coming, the Cycle Is Turning, and You Need To Get Ready
The Fed’s press conferences in the era of “money printer go brrrrrr” are often derided as “nothingburgers,” but of course they are still required listening and contain important information. Nothing in Fed Chair Powell’s Wednesday press conference was surprising to us, but it served to underscore our convictions about (1) Read more…
Bitcoin
Get Ready For More Central Bank Sorcery
In March and April, the covid crisis sparked an unprecedented policy response from governments and central banks — first monetary, and then fiscal. As the magnitude and scope of these interventions became clear, the likely longer-term consequences for gold also became clear. Further events have only served to reinforce this Read more…
Commodities
King Dollar, Gold, and Financial Repression
Gold’s rise continues. Since the shock-and-awe fiscal and monetary response to the covid shock got underway in March and April, we’ve been pointing out the obvious long-term impetus it would provide for gold. We won’t rehash all the data here — the big picture is obvious enough. The monetary expansion Read more…
China
Market Summary—5 March 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks We don’t believe that last week’s declines represented a rational response to neutral analysis of the risks posed by COVID-19. The data we have so far lead us to believe that those risks are relatively modest — that COVID-19 will not be a global black swan, Read more…
