Executive Summary 1. Trade deficits aren’t the big issue with China — fraud and theft are. Some of the U.S. administration’s public comments on the trade conflict with China have focused on the trade deficit between the two countries. Wall Street Journal contributor and former Chair of the Council of Read more
As we have done for decades, we are writing with our favorite global investments for 2019. This prediction is for the first half of 2019. If there is no world recession in 2019 and one is not expected for 2020, or if a good trade settlement is reached with China, Read more
U.S. and Global Stocks: The U.S. Remains the Place to Be Here we are in September, and as we have mentioned before September is a month for market adjustments before we move into what is usually the strongest period for U.S. stocks, which is from October through April. There have Read more
Market Summary The U.S. economy, GDP growth, consumer income, employment statistics, and corporate profits are very good. U.S. consumer spending is strong, and corporate profits for almost all economic sectors, including the consumer sector, are booming. Real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2018 was just revised upward slightly Read more
Market Summary The bull market that began in March, 2009 has now become the longest in U.S. history. While corrections are possible at any time, and there are any number of potential catalysts for such a correction, we see nothing that suggests a bear market is imminent. The most important Read more
Market Summary U.S. and World Outlook: Pivotal Influence Is the Value of the U.S. Dollar The U.S. dollar continues to be strong and this continues to disincentivize U.S. investors putting money into commodities, non-U.S. stock and bond markets. Simultaneously, the strong U.S. dollar incentivizes foreign investors to put money in Read more
Let’s start with a review of U.S. and global economic, trade, finance, and banking outlooks. • The U.S.: Bullish economics, very strong. Trade negotiations not a lasting problem. • Europe: Neutral. Avoid. • Asia: Growth companies are attractive. The U.S. dollar is strong; this is neutral for Asian commodity exporters. If and when the Read more
Our analysis of global markets often comes from a contrarian point of view. Since the 1970s, we have been well-known among investors in precious metals for this reason. We are agnostic about precious metals, viewing them a potentially important tool in an investor’s kit for surviving and prospering under a Read more
U.S. Economics Economic data continue to impress, with wages finally moving higher by about 3% year over year, and S&P 500 profits expected to rise by 15–16%. More positive news is that the U.S. has become a net natural gas exporter, and with the creation of several new gasification and Read more
Market Summary The U.S. Economy – The Tax Bill good for U.S. Economy and Good for U.S. Stock Market Readers know that we are bullish on the U.S. economic outlook. The passage of the tax bill will create further impetus for economic growth in the U.S. We will not be Read more
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