With markets apparently becoming tired in their post-COVID-crash reality, confusion reigns in many investors’ minds. The market has, according to many observers, become detached from underlying economic realities. Many companies have withdrawn their guidance for the second quarter and often for the rest of 2020. That absence of visibility, coupled Read more
In a recent conference call, Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer ably summarized the current market situation in a single graph: According to Dwyer, the market remains in a no-man’s-land between unprecedented economic events and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. In this “frustration” phase, we remain focused on our task at hand. Put Read more
The COVID crisis is first and foremost a healthcare crisis, although it is having deep economic effects. Predictably, in the market volatility caused by the pandemic, the healthcare sector has broadly outperformed; and within healthcare, biotechnology has performed even more strongly. Of course healthcare is a broad sector, comprising many Read more
Parts of the United States and the rest of the world are tentatively moving towards re-opening their economies. Many unknowns remain about the path forward, including the timeline for developing treatments and producing vaccines, as well as many other issues. Those unknowns collectively are making it impossible for many companies Read more
We’ve been concentrating on the fiscal and monetary response to the coronavirus pandemic. The responses are similar to the playbook developed in the wake of the Great Recession, but in scope and size, they are unprecedented. Our coverage has been primarily of the response of U.S. authorities so far. This Read more
Over the past several weeks, we have kept you informed about the monetary and fiscal stimulus being enacted in the United States in response to the coronavirus pandemic and the economic dislocation associated with it. The nature and extent of the economic slowdown caused by measures to combat the virus Read more
If you’re in lockdown, working from home, or otherwise practicing social distancing, we hope this letter at least offers the chance to think with us about the implications of current events for the economic, financial, and investing landscape. Perhaps it will even be able to briefly take your mind away Read more
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold, investors’ attention is focused in two directions. First, the progression of the pandemic itself as a public health phenomenon. We believe that before a sustainable stock-market recovery can take hold, global investors will need to see improving news on this front. There are Read more
Note: Current events are very fast-moving. The following note was composed last week and sent to our clients and paid subscribers last Thursday. Our first thoughts for our clients, friends, and readers are for your health and resilience, both physical and psychological, as the current crisis unfolds. We trust and Read more
For several weeks at the beginning of the year, we were expecting that the strong markets would experience a pullback; but what happened was that world stock and bond markets suddenly became unstable over the last 12 trading days. We began to prepare for a pullback in January, increasing cash Read more
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