Markets This Week
Cage Match: Earnings Outlook vs. Geopolitics
Geopolitics At the Fore As we write, the news coming across the wire is about an attack conducted by unknown actors which has killed more than a hundred Iranians gathered for a memorial at the grave of Qasem Soleimani — a prominent Iranian military leader who was himself killed in Read more
Markets This Week
The East’s Brightest Spots For 2024, Part One: Japan (and a Note on Korea)
Last week, we described briefly some longer-term economic and political dynamics that render China problematic as an investment destination for us. As we noted, while Chinese equities may sometimes make an attractive tactical trade for investors who are so inclined, we think that’s all they should be, and that the Read more
Markets This Week
Markets This Week: Powell Tells Markets It’s Not His Plan To Break Them
A few significant events and data releases helped propel a relief rally yesterday. First, the release of Q3 GDP for the U.S., which was revised up to 2.9%. Second, JOLTS jobs data, which showed that the Fed’s tightening is having some impact on the labor market, but far from a Read more
Markets This Week
Wishing All Our American Readers A Happy Thanksgiving Holiday
As we enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and the usually quiet half-day of trading that follows on Friday, a few notes on current events of potential significance that we are watching. First, China. Due to China’s central role as an engine of global commodity demand, sentiment in world stock markets can Read more
Markets This Week
Markets This Week
More Evidence the Inflation Spike Is In the Rear View Mirror PPI (producer price inflation) data yesterday showed slowing inflation impulses, as we have discussed. Even our own index of basic essential needs (representing food, clothing, shelter, and energy components) reflect a sharp slow down in price increases from this Read more
Federal Reserve
Markets This Week: Fed Messaging Leaves Market Guessing
The Fed “We still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” Jerome Powell, Nov 2 2022 By one significant measure, the Fed has succeeded. In the wake of the pandemic fiscal Read more
Markets This Week
Markets This Week — 27 October
Accelerating GDP data (annualized quarter-over-quarter at 2.6%, with the real-time “GDP Now” estimate running over 3%) and cooling PCE inflation data (4.5%) in the U.S. that were just released suggest that some of the most bearish economic prognostications have had the wind taken out of their sails. Earnings season is Read more
Inflation
Inflation, Changing Regimes, and the End of Green Conceits
With the S&P 500 bouncing off very long support at the 200-week moving average, the stage may be set for the bear market to get a breather. Inflation remains a clear problem, but as we have been telling you for some time, inflation will eventually begin to settle back from Read more
Capex
Market Cracks and the Rocky Return to What Used to Be Normal
Investors with eyes riveted on upcoming CPI data have had to make a few glances across the Atlantic to the financial (and perhaps soon-to-be-political) trainwreck in the UK. The wreck has centered on UK pension funds that had leveraged themselves in order to meet actuarial targets rendered impossible by a Read more
