In spite of its questionable fundamental foundations, the current rally continues, demonstrating clearly that psychology, not fundamentals, is often the most powerful near-term factor governing market action. There is certainly an element of short-covering at work, besides relief, wishful thinking, and the anticipation — misplaced, we believe — of an Read more…
It was a head-scratcher for us that Fed Chair Powell indicated in last week’s press conference that he believes the Fed funds rate is near a “neutral” level. Looking across the inflation landscape, that seems a quixotic view and not one with which we agree. We believe the Fed funds Read more…
The Federal Reserve, as expected, delivered another 0.75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds rate to 2.5%. Markets were buoyant in response — perhaps concluding that a Fed pivot or declaration of victory is closer than feared, or that too much pessimism had been baked in about the likelihood, and Read more…
So Bad, It’s Good? We highlighted Bank of America’s 0.0 bull/bear ratio several weeks ago — noting that the absolute nadir of bearish sentiment is not a sell indicator.The global fund manager survey (above) from the same analytical team, showing managers to be even more pessimistic than they were the Read more…
Inflation Bites Another month, another sky-high CPI print: at 9.1%, the highest year-over-year inflation since 1981. Of course, the methodology of constructing this index has changed over the decades; if the methodology employed in 1990 were used today, the reported rate would be 17.3%, according to ShadowStats. Even this is Read more…
The U.S. is likely already in recession. The first quarter saw a real GDP decline of 1.6%; the Atlanta Fed’s GDP now tracker suggests that the second quarter may come in at a decline of 2.1%. Two consecutive quarters of decline meets the technical definition of a recession. The question Read more…
As we write, the U.S. stock market is undoing the momentary relief that followed yesterday’s hawkish Fed announcement. The proximate cause was perhaps the overnight announcement that the Swiss National Bank would consider selling down its $177 billion worth of U.S. equity holdings as it defends the Swiss franc. Perhaps Read more…
Of course, all eyes are on the Fed, inflation, and employment, so much of what we wrote above fills out our general view of where markets are and what is most important to pay attention to. We’ve commented many times in the past about the rise of ESG investing — Read more…
First, let’s touch on the inflation level revealed by the Guild Basic Needs Index [GBNI] — our in-house, real-world inflation measure which we compile from a simple set of data series covering consumer expenses for food, shelter, clothing, and transportation. We had to adjust the x-axis on our graph: year-on-year, Read more…
In this second quarter of 2022, individual investors’ sentiment hit levels not seen since 2009. History suggests that periods with historically low investor sentiment (1) usually precede a large tradeable rally, and (2) can create an attractive entry opportunity for longer-term investors. Market tops do not announce themselves beforehand, or even Read more…
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